Excellent article by @zeynep on dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 spread.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/

It argues that pandemic is driven by superspreaders, and so what is required are policies that (i) lower the likelihood of superspreading; and (ii) bust clusters initiated by superspreaders.

Two key take-aways.

First: most transmission is due to a few people.

Second: most transmission occurs in specific spaces, namely, close, poorly ventilated spaces filled with unmasked people talking or singing.

Not at playgrounds or parks.

Not by people running/biking without a mask.

Not at supermarkets.

Not on mass transit.

Not on beaches.

Not even at outdoor parties.

She further argues that RT-PCR tests are the wrong approach. The best approach is one that relies on cheap, rapid tests that can be deployed to identify and defuse nascent clusters. This monitoring is not primarily for identifying sick individuals but instead for control spread.

Finally, there are no documented superspreader cases where the index patient was a younger child.

In other words, while children appear to get infected around as much as adults, kids are not superspreaders.

All this together strongly suggests that we can safely reopen public elementary schools, so long as we take the lessons @zeynep offers in her article:

1. Rapid, cheap, mass testing at elementary schools (2 - 3x/week?);
2. Expand the spaces in which our kids interact - take private land if necessary;
3. Ensure high quality ventilation at the schools;
4. Wear masks.

Here's a post from mid-July on this: https://medium.com/@matthew.noah/re-open-schools-as-public-health-hubs-208d8729fd5

If anyone says that this is too expensive then the answer is that not doing this is even more expensive.

We need creative funding solutions, and politicians who can push these solutions.

Hey there @AlecMacGillis I hope you find this thread worth a read and RT.

/end