Trump's tactics were more effective in '16 because he was perceived as punching up. Now, Trump IS the establishment, and anything he does is a punch down by default. This power dynamic makes his one trick - playing the obnoxious heel - a serious liability. (1/4)

Being annoying and petty doesn't make him look powerful; it makes him look pathetic, like he lacks the confidence of a secure, beloved leader. He comes off like a punk. If he was halfway competent and wanted to cement his authoritarian regime, he'd play it like a statesman. (2/4)

Trump is hamstrung by his personality. He lacks charm, or even the ability to look thoughtful and share a human moment. He is all aggravation, all the time, perpetually stuck in weaselly rhetoric and unable to project the bearing and dignity that his office demands. (3/4)

Trump's policies are stupid and awful, but these won't sink him, because he wears the same red shirt as roughly 40% of voters. What will hurt him, and I think will seal his fate, is that he's an insecure, weak leader that makes people anxious and depressed just by talking. (4/4)

P.S. There's some talk about whether Biden telling Trump to shut up and/or calling Trump a clown will hurt Biden. The short answer is no, and the long answer is also no. Again, the power dynamic is very different from '16; Biden now has Trump's challenger advantage.