Interesting tweet by Admiral Chad @DeFiGod1 on how to "make it". However, I think there's more to it.

My Chads, let's explore in depth how we can turn 50K USD into 2M USD.

Spoiler: It's very possible. https://twitter.com/DeFiGod1/status/1309942072917602304

1/ To turn 50K USD to 2m USD, you need to make a x40. Now, how can we do this?

A) The Long-Term Fundamentalist.
B) The Narrative Player.
C) The Flip Flopper.

2/ A) The Long-Term Fundamentalist.
The Long-Term Fundamentalist plays a coin based on its relative valuation and long-term potential. Will this be a successful product in the next half year(s)? In order to make a x40 on a single coin, it generally has to be relatively low cap.

3/ Was this possible? It sure was. The (now) blue-chip projects (avg'ish) 2019 to now:
@chainlink: 0.6$ -> 20$ (x35)
@AaveAave: 0.007$ -> 0.5$ (x71)
@synthetix_io: 0.15$ -> 4.8$ (x32)
On average top tier projects did a x40'ish. They would have done a x100 if you caught bottom.

4/ If you would have spread your bets across these top tier projects (or even went all-in one project), you would have turned your 50K USD to 2M USD, even without re-flipping it in another project as @DeFiGod1 mentioned.

5/ There are 2 questions you should ask yourself if you choose this path.
1) Am I a person that loves to bet big on one project and stick with it? Does it fit my personality?
2) Do I have enough fundamental knowledge to spot the few winners in the 1000 of projects out there?

6/ 1) Going all-in a few projects means VERY HIGH RISK. You either win big, or you lose big. All the people that I know that got insanely rich from $LINK or $SNX, believed in these projects with all their heart. They volunteered for these projects, they set up community channels.

7/ They tracked everything that happened, unraveled new clues before they got released. The $LINK marines did not receive their name for nothing. Without this sheer conviction, you will sell early, lose faith if it dumps -70%, and sell before it hits a x40. Are you this person?

8/ 2) The second question is whether you have enough fundamental knowledge to look very far in the future. Did you predict this DeFi season? If you did, holding long-term while predicting new narratives could be a profitable endeavor for you. Research is key.

9/ B) The Narrative Player

Instead of predicting and holding a project a long time, you pick a shorter horizon. A few weeks, maybe a few months. Once the DeFi season started and $YFI did a x100, other coins went x5-x7 in a heartbeat. Remember: a x6 followed by a x7 is also x42.

10/ C) The Flip-Flopper.

The Flip-Flopper generally goes into projects with very short-term hype. He looks on telegram, twitter, reddit, and 4chan, for the latest hype. He gets in, and generally doesn't hold for more than a few days unless some nearby catalyst will happen.

11/ The Flip-Flopper gets out after a quick x2-x3 and moves to the next project. He can go in a larger quantity of projects, as his barrier to entry is much lower, but will also incur more losses than (a good) Fundamentalist or Narrative Player.

12/ So let's talk about risk management. It's clear that The Long-Term Fundamentalist needs to be close to all-in to make it. Putting in 1k USD $LINK and waiting for a year, doesn't get you to "make it" money. High risk. High reward.

13/ The Narrative Player and Flip-Flopper generally are more risk-averse, especially the Flip-Flopper. This is for good reasons, as rug pulls/exploits and bad flips happen all the time. Going all-in there is a sure way to get yourself losing all your money.

14/ So, can a pure Narrative Player and Flip-Flopper make it?
Assume for a Narrative Player that:
- He risks a maximum of 5% of account
- On average makes a x3 (simplistic: 50% of the time they lose investment, 50% of the time they get out at x6).
- Holds for 3 weeks avg.

15/ Result: A Narrative player needs to make 45 bets that on average do a x3 in order to turn 50K USD into 2M USD. Is this possible? I would say so. Maybe not in one Narrative, but definitely in a few (think DeFi Narrative + NFT Narrative + whatever next Narrative will come).

16/ The Flip-Flopper, using the assumptions as in post /11 but a 2% maximum risk of account and only a x2 on average (as the Flip-Flopper is less selective than the Narrative Player). He will need 220 flips to make it, but holds those a shorter period than the Narrative Player.

17/ 220 flips is a lot, but with 20+ new coins on Uniswap a day, it's not unachievable. Also, the Flip-Flopper may hold several coins at the same time (increasing risk, but Flip-Flop coins generally have less correlation as they are low liquidity).

18/ What to take away from this tweetstorm? I don't want you to get stuck on the specifics. I want you to think about what type of an investor you are. Where is your edge. There are several roads to make it, all of them viable. It depends on who you are. Believe in yourself.

19/ Also, a lot of people mix their plays. They allocate part of their portfolio to Long-Term Fundamentalist plays, part Narrative Plays, part Flip-Flop plays. The key is to understand the different perspectives and risk associated. Don't marry a shitcoin, don't sell a winner.

20/ It is not an easy road, else everyone would do it. It will require research, preparation, networking, being there at the right time and mental fortitude to endure bear times. But the rewards are there. There is no market where the rewards for winning are this big.

21/ PS. the above calculations for Narrative Player and Flip Flopper assumed that you are in a stable coin, and place bets from this stable coin. If instead BTC or ETH is your "main" currency and you place bets from there, if ETH or BTC goes x4, you need far less bets, but risk+.

22/ Oh, and did you realize the above is possible without even considering a "2017 alt-coin season" where everything goes up x100?