Read on Twitter
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.26.20202267v1.full.pdf
Neat paper from Prof Gomez’ group at Oxford: “Becayse the model is fitted to observed deaths, the estimates of cumulated numbers infected & herd immunity threshold depend up the values prespecified for infection fatality ratios. Specifying an average...
Neat paper from Prof Gomez’ group at Oxford: “Becayse the model is fitted to observed deaths, the estimates of cumulated numbers infected & herd immunity threshold depend up the values prespecified for infection fatality ratios. Specifying an average...
... infection fatality ratio of 0.3% gives an estimated herd immunity threshold of 15%. Whatever value is specified for the infection fatality ratio, a model that allows for heterogeneity has better fit to the data than the homogeneity model and supports herd immunity as the...
... main factor underlying the reversal of the epidemic.
Those of us who aren’t skilled in the arts of theoretical epidemiology but instead are well able to recognise that the deaths v time function clearly indicates a natural process at work & that the early reversal of...
Those of us who aren’t skilled in the arts of theoretical epidemiology but instead are well able to recognise that the deaths v time function clearly indicates a natural process at work & that the early reversal of...
...rapid expansion of infections to a position that infections grew at ever-reducing rate & eventually ceased (for all practical purposes) implied that too low a remaining % of the population were susceptible to sustain the infection. In other words, a herd immunity threshold...
... has been attained. While at a whole population level, a HIT has been passed in U.K., meaning it is simply not possible for the same organism to be involved in a large, sustained & consolidated expansion, it is reasonable to expect that small, self-limiting outbreaks would...
....be possible. However, the public health emergency arising from Covid19 has ended permanently. The usual seasonal influenza outbreak represents a greater risk to public health from now until March. If U.K. government does not have advisors willing to communicate this opinion..
...to the PM, in terms, then the responsibility for most of the non-Covid19 deaths rests on the shoulders of the PM & cabinet. I think U.K. government’s advisors are malevolent fools but failing to consult more widely is a failing for which the PM must take responsibility.
