Week of 9/28 - P3 CFB Thread:

Campbell @ Wake (-34.5/?) Havent spent much time on this game, but this feels like a big number. Camels played a depleted Ga SO team to a 27-26 loss, lost 43-21 to CC, and App St smeshed 52-21 last time out. Campbell has dual threat QB that is more threats as runner than passer

I havent actually watched any of their games, so I really don't want to speculate too much about who they are without knowing. My instinct/read tells me their offense is a bit like what NC St had success with against Wake, except they are obviously without ACC athletes.

Last game, App State was content to shove the ball down their throat and ran for 400+ yards on 60 carries. Walker should have a field day on the ground, if you are playing DFS on the short slate. More impressively, Campbell surpassed 300 yards on 57 plays v App St defense.

Feel pretty confident saying they are going to both run a lot more plays this week with Wake's tempo and probable passing volume and that they are going to have as much or more offensive success. I'm starting to think this Wake defense is pretty bad aside from some DL quality.

Wake wont have (m)any opportunities to swashbuckle an opponent this year, so they may try to pour it on if they can. I'm not certain they are gonna be capable of just running them out of the building, We've seen the Camels score 21+ in three straight against FBS foes and Wake

isn't significantly better defensively than any of their previous foes. Campbell hasn't faced a capable passing attack yet and certainly not a team that utilizes tempo the way that Wake will. I havent been able to find a total yet for this game, but I'll be curious to have a look

within the next 48 hours. This is a bigger number than I would ever consider laying. I think Wake can win comfortably in the end, something like 52-24.

NC State @ Pitt (-14/46.5) NC State gave me the ole okie doke. Didnt expect their offense to look the way they did against Wake and then just as soon as I change my tune they lag an egg against VT. One reason that leads me to believe why Wake defense is worse than expected.

Hockman was totally lost against VT and the offensive line went from totally dominant v Wake to a liability against the Hokes. They wisely pulled him and brought in Leary and that gave them life. He is a significantly better passer than Hockman and that was what was needed.

Doeren wont name a starter but anyone with a bit of ability to reason can see that starting Hockman against this Pitt defense would be a grave error. You arent gonna run on these guys consistently and you are gonna give up points, so start with the QB that gives you best chance

to pass and use Hockman in some sub packages and in short yardage, if you would like. The Pitt DL continues to decimate and they have to be considered amongst the countries best right now. I think the truth of the NC St OL prob lies somewhere in between their Wake & VT performnce

One thing that I feel very confident about is their defense is a trash heap. You can beat em by ground super easily or throw on em if you please. Both Wake and VT have shown that to be evident. Pitt doesn't run the ball all that well but an area that NC St has been abysmal is

when offense utilizes any type of counter or cutback. Walker ripped them to shreds on cut backs and the VT running game found legs like they haven't stood on since Mike Vick was in town. Fuente's run game has been brutal and they just ran for 314 yards w their QB2 & QB3 playing

They made Kansas' castoff look like Gayle Sayers. While the Pitt offense has been largely disappointing and inconsistent, I think they are gonna have a get well game after being fairly unlucky against a bad Ville defense last week. I went over 45.5, I'll continue to take Pack

overs until I see something that makes me change course. Pitt defense could be the huge wrench in this problem, but I'm assuming a QB change which changes the picture and I believe this is gonna be a good bit of pace for an NFL totaled game. 34-16 NARD DOG

UNC @ BC (+14/54) BC is a really bad football team. I really wish I did my due diligence on the Texas State game last week. I watched that game this morning and Texas State should have beat them. They got a silly personal foul when they were up 21-14 with less than 2 min to play

that would have put BC at 4th and 5 and potentially given them the outright. Then they got another dumb 15 yarder after that and BC ended up sneaking back and winning 24-21, but make no mistake, Texas State was every bit their equal as a 20 point dog. BC returned p much whole OL

but they have been one of nation's worst run offenses through two games. I don't really get it, but they are a dink and dunk passing offense that is only explosive when they have moments of individual brilliance from Flowers, which didn't happen v Texas State, and they had to

rely on targeting their big TE 12 times just to hope to move the chains enough to survive Texas State. Credit due, Spavital is gonna have a big job soon. He now almost scalped both SMU and Boston College. Fun to see, but point remains that BC was v lucky to run up score v Duke

in what was really an evenly played game and should have just lost to a SBC team. We've only seen UNC once and that was against Syrcause, which I'm now really getting to appreciate means its a guaranteed circus game as Cuse's games are just a complete comedy of errors for all tms

BC hasn't been challenged yet on defense and while UNC and Howell looked lackadaisical for much of the game against Cuse until late, they finally showed what they are capable of late in game and pulled away. They didn't push the ball vertically which is a staple of Longo's scheme

but they finally managed to get their playmakers in space and pulled away late. Based on the way that Duke doesn't have any athletes on their offense but Texas State does and BC struggled to handle Haydel and Hill in space, I think the UNC offense could make a big leap here

and play more like the top outfit that the market anticipated. For whatever reason, I struggle to pull the trigger on mid range favorites, especially on road, but I went ahead and laid 13.5. I think we know who BC is and I think if UNC plays to their potential

they smesh BC. I dont think BC is explosive enough to trade and I think they are really gonna struggle with UNC's skill talent. Lot of good out of UNC camp this week where Mack is getting em loose and having fun. BC happy to be 2-0, no biggie losing this one. 38-16 Heels.

Virginia Tech @ Duke (+10.5/54) I feel about Duke much the way I do about BC, this is a bad football team. Unlike BC, they are turning the ball over an incredible rate. They are trying to stick with Brice and he's probably the best option but the best option isn't a good option

Duke lacks playmakers and simialr to BC, they need to rely on TEs, but they at least have more than one and more athleticism from them. Duke has a hit a few chunk plays this season but other than that, they seems to just be spinning their wheels, going backwards, or giving it awy

I still like their DL and they are prob gonna be tough to run on by traditional offenses, but Armstrong and the Hoos showed that dual threats increase the stress. In watching their game against BC, Jurk had a lot of chances to pull it but elected not to. It looks like Hooker is

back for VT, but even if he's not, VT showed last week they have three mobile QBs all capable of leading this offense. Im a long time fan of Q Patterson but I was surprised by the Oregon transfer. He got hurt, I think his hand, and they got Q in the game and he was a beast too

Like I said before, I hadnt seen VT run the ball like that since I was in short pants. Theyve got three players that can catch passes as well, this may be a pretty good offense, which we know theoretically Fuente is capable of producing. They thoroughly whipped NC St last week

which is quite remarkable considering the way they were ravaged by the rona with as many as 30 players limited and not having their DC, who was supposed to be in his first game replacing a legend. Im not sure what Duke does well on offense and with the way they harassed the Pack

on the LOS after a dominant effort the week prior, I'm starting to really warm to this team, which I already liked. They have the best LB duo in the conf to back them up and NFL talent in secondary, even if they arent gonna have their full compliment they would in a normal year.

At 10.5 and liking the chalk, this number is in no mans land, so I'm gonna wait and see if it can take a little dip for me. VT looks like upper crust of ACC and Duke near the caboose. Duke beat VT 45-10 LY and I think they will be hungry to pay that back. That game was the end

of the Ryan Willis era and the beginning of Hendon Hooker's. It was reported that game precipated fundamental changes in the way that Fuente would conduct its business and it changed their 2019 trajectory. I thought Fuente was a dead man walking after that loss. Hokies 34-17

Jacksonville State @ FSU (-26.5/?) Man, this may be the worst FSU team Ive seen in many years. To say Miami embarrassed them wouldn't be strong enough language. It was 52-10 but somehow it was worse if you watched. They didn't look like they belonged on same field.

The QB situation is an abject disaster at FSU. They would prob be wise to roll out a freshman this game if they think he can hold up emotionally after the pounding he will take this year behind this line. Maybe they just punt the year? Either way, they should have a team to smack

around for the first time. I dont know much about Jax State current personnel, but this is a good FCS program. They have a QB who has been around for a long time and he may actually be an upgrade over anything FSU currently has ready. Been trying to read up some on them but info

is limited. They lose a couple prodcutive WRs and coach had this to say “You’ll learn some new names,” Grass said. “I think they are very good, but they are going to be more blue-collar … possession-type receivers.” So may not be tons of explosives for JSU being outathleted.

I really don't know what to expect in this game. JSU has a Clemson transfer at QB, so could he make magic happen? Prob not. If I had to guess a final score, maybe something like FSU 41-17.

UVA @ Clemson (-28/55) Played over 53. Tried to hit the vegas open of 50.5 but it was on the move too quickly. These two just met in the ACCG and Clemson won 62-17. UVA played their first game last week and it was a real treat. There is no way to describe UVA's offense w words

it must be seen and experienced. Especially now that Armstrong is under center. He believes he is Pat Mahomes but he's really the soutpaw QB version of Dennis Eckersley. He showed that quite literally anything can happen with him at the helm. They moved the ball really well

on a Duke defense that had been tough to run on and been formidable through two games. They played an incredibly whacky game that had some of everything. It was a close, lower scoring game until late, but I believe the 37-20 UVA win was just desserts, even though it was wonky.

UVA has the oddest group of skill guys. You've got a 6'7" FR receiver out there in Davis who played a great game and big boy'd several Duke DBs for TDs, the 6'7" CMU QB turned TE Poljan, a regularly sized guy in Jana, and then two little water bug skeeters in Kemp and Kelly.

Somehow, it all works, and it's truly a delight to watch. Now, let's not mistake my romanticism for a declaration of excellence, they are just simply so odd and enjoyable for me to watch. Their line played well, as did mountain goat strong Taulapapa at RB. They just kept advncing

and finally cashed in enough to pull away comfortably. They are going to have a much tougher task against the champs this week, but it's gonna fun to see them be unrelenting in their attack. Theyve got a solid front 7 on defense but the secondary did look to be very buttoned up

Duke had a bunch of guys running open down the seams and most times Brice either didn't have the time or the arm to feed them, but Law Dog certainly will this week. Too much explosive pass plays available last week for me to think they are gonna succeed at slowing the Tigers

Clemson has a big showdown with Miami next week, and the joys of life in the ACC is that their 28 point spread this week is the most competitively lined pre-game number of the first quarter of their season. They typically can pull starters at half against 75% of their foes

and while that may be the case this week as well, I think it behooves them to run a little bit more offense, in particular, before playing Miami next week. UVA fine w game script to chuck it around and play with pace when behind. Clemson moves onto Miami unscatched before taking

two months off and playing VT in early December. 45-17 Tigers.

Texas Am @ Bama (-18/51.5) Bama won 47-28 last year. The Ags had no answer for the speed and quantity of Bama pass catchers. Jeudy was only of the bunch to not catch T. D and he was thrown to in EZ but Tua got baited into his first pick of the year. Statistically, it was p even

Moreso than final score indicated. Bama defense shut down the traditional ground game with ease but Mond did damage as a runner and threw the ball 42 times. Two of his huge pass plays came to TE Jalen Wydermyer, one was a bust and the other he just was more man than X McKinney

I would say overall, good Kellen showed up in last years game. I just subjected myself to watching the Texas AM/Vandy game from last week. Woof. That was a slog. Bad Mond showed up to the party. I counted six drops bu his pass catchers but almost all of them could be excused

as his placement was frankly not up too snuff for a player with his experience. The aforementioned Wydermyer had two drops but its forgivable as he was mourning the loss of a family member. I was not at all impressed w the pass catchers overall. They spread it around some.

The two players on offense that looked like diff makers were both Ainias Smith and Isiah Spiller, both now at RB. Smith actually got the start at RB and was a much more significant part of game plan than Spiller. Formerly a slot receiver, he's similar to Bowden in capability to

play at high level at many positions. His quickness, pass catching ability, and ability make guys miss was/is going to be fun to see. They def could use him in the slot though if last week was foreshadowing of whats to come. Spiller had five carries for basically five yards

and then about 112 on three others. He did a great job making the first guy miss and then was in acres of space. Mond didn't pull a read play until early 3Q and without him as legit threat, this OL, while much more experienced, looked much like the crappy group we saw last year.

You shouldnt have trouble moving Vandy off the ball, and they did for much of the night. On other side of ball, Vandy started a TrFR QB and he honestly looked like he was as experienced as Mond for much of the game. Unfortunately, they don't have any athletes at skill spots

so it was pretty much all work into the flat or they took a few shots vertically with various levels of success to a dude named something like Abdul-Raman. He looked the part and was more involved than Johnson, which really surprised me. Not terrible effort by TrFR QB on road in

SEC w distinct talent edges, and he had them in this game with a chance to win it in 4Q as 30 point dogs. I think this was more discredit to aTm than credit to Vandy. Both teams turned it over in red zone and gave other guys free chances in RZ. It was close but a terrible game

from an execution standpoint. Vandy used tempo her and there but Jimbo's tempo reigned supreme as it was a snail paced contest. Bama dispatched Missouri with ease 38-19. Missouri had a bust on a wheel route to the RB and a garbage time TD on the last play of game to send it over

Bama had 35 points with 9+ min to go in 3Q and could have named their score but they brought in Young and he looked like a TrFR compared to the poise and command of Mac it was evidence of easy choice by Saban. Mac really looked good, as did the OL when it mattered.

Waddle finally gets to be focal point and I would contend there isnt a better WR in CFB than him, there for sure wasn't last week. If the OL protects Jones that way again against Ags front that didn't sack a TrFR QB behind a potato gang OL until 7 min to go4Q, gna be boat race

I think highly of the Missouri defense and Bama coulda had 50 pretty easily if they wanted to. Defensively for Bama, they had an easy ask. New QB, new scheme, worse players. They played like it. Dylan Moses being back in this lineup for Bama make them a totally diff group.

His speed and ability to close on folks is tremendous. The Missouri OL didn't help themselves with multiple busted protections and this looked lot more like the old Bama defenses that the dynasty was built on. Again, deck was in their favor and that era of defense has come and

gone now, but I was very impressed. It was good to see a mobile QB the week before Mond, who I think will have to keep the ball a ton more on keepers like last year, but the way the Ags OL looked makes this look like could be a long night. I thought they were gonna make big leap

and they still might, but I dont think them showing it against Bama seems too likely. With the concession that Jimbo kept things vanilla, I don't see any WRs capable of separating from Bama defense. They were peppering some possession white guy and that ain't gonna cut it here

I missed the initial open in Vegas of -13 unfortunately and now this bad boy is running like a marlin in deep seas. I thought aTm was poised for a big 2020 but I feel lot less optimistic now. I know its one game but many same issues appear to be present. Jimbo gotta take offense

into the current millenia and I dont like the current personnel to be ready to play catch up. If aTm takes money I may involved but I'll stay sideline for now with an eye on a few other options here. Bama won by 19 and 22 L2Y. Make it 3 now, 41-17.

SC @ Florida (-17.5/57) Just lost my write up so not happy. SC off 31-27 loss to UT. Their run game was really poor in 1H but they made some personnel changes at RB in 2H and some other tweaks and moved ball better. Overall, not impressed with their run game last week. Hill got

the start at QB and his familiarity with Bobo scheme prob played dividends. pretty much the entire gameplan was line up Shi in the slot and then let him abuse the UT slot corner or whoever they put in front of him. They couldn't matchup with him and they were relentless in

throwing him in breaking routes in MOF and it paid off big time. Defensively, SC wasn't very impressive. Gurantano's stat line was fine, but if he was throwing with more precision, it could have been a very big night for him. They were at least three balls to Keyton that should

have been big gainers and chain movers that he just whiffed on. I thought UT OL had potential to be much improved but the early returns, esp run blocking were very poor. I was only impressed with their push on one single drive and that is when they got stubborn to Chandler

on the first drive of the 2H and they marched down the field on them. Gray didn't get anything blocked up for him and neither back was able to create much on their own. Im not sure if I should ding the UT OL or be impressed with the SC DL. Prob a bit of both but my gut says

UT deserves more discredit than vice versa. The game ended with a UT punt and SC return man had muffed punt and Tenny recovered. Game over. Florida offense put on a show against a hapless Ole Miss defense, who currently appears to be the chalk for worst defense in the league.

Florida went with a progressive game plan and that was to throw to open up the run. I wasn't impressed with UF run blocking until the 2H when they could just take advantage of a tired and poor OM front. Trask threw for 6 TD and played like you want your upperclassmen QB to play

I laughed a few times both listening live and during the replay when the booth credited his misfires as great balls when it was actually outstanding play by TE Kyle Pitts who showed why he will be the top move TE in the NFL draft. He bailed out Trask like the US Gov't did banks

Trask's performance even landed him in Oakland in R1 of a PFF mock I saw this morning Defensively, UF showed they have a long ways to go to be a real CFP contender. New scheme and massive philosophical shift for Ole Miss and they shredded Florida. Corral was excellent

in his navigation of the pocket and he put the mobility and arm talent on display that reminded me why he was one of my favorite HS prospects. Much of his damage was done to slot man Elijah Moore who they creatively schemed a bunch of touches. Went for 2 bills + out of the slot

Its gotta be concerning for UF here to be facing Shi Smith who is capable of doing similarly to their defense out of the slot. SC doesn't have the QB nor surrounding skill talent that Ole Miss does, but Smith is going to do some damage unless they decide to go NFL and shadow him

with one of their top corners on every play. I think that would be tough to do, but I'm not a X's and O's savant by any means. If Trask can manage the game the way he did last week, UT's open WRs last week lead me to believe he can have another big game against this SC def

They have some quality and length at corner but I don't see an answer for Pitts out of the slot and when they get him moving around. I agree with the market on the upward betting of side and total, but I wasn't an early adopter and now I'll prob pass. SC actually scored p well

against UF over past three seasons but they are going to get scored on even more than what they can match. I think Florida can get near the implied 40 point mark and I think UF defense still has a lot to prove, but a much easier ask. OM off v good, def v bad, which came to

fruition last game. I dont have notes in front me but I believe I counted 4 Ole Miss RZ trips that resulted in zero points. Cash a few of those in... Gators didn't regularly score 5 TD in conf last year but should in this game. I'll go UF 41-20. If under took money maybe I play O

Missouri @ tennessee (-12.5/48.5) This total opened 44 at circa and my instinct was to go over but I hadn't worked it enough at that point to push any chips. Ive already touched on both teams performances from week one. Mizz played couple QBs in the game and coach said this after

“I'm comfortable playing multiple (quarterbacks) meaningful snaps throughout the season... I don't think this is going to be a typical season like we've ever had before.” Robinson wasn't bad. He just didn't have much opportunity. The big wheel route makes the yardage look

more respectable, but he wasnt bad with the ball. From STL Dispatch, He was 7 of 9 for 42 yards when under pressure, according to analytics site Pro Football Focus, and 9 of 13 for 85 yards when Alabama blitzed with an extra defender. His PFF passing grade (74.3) was better than

2019 Missouri starter Kelly Bryant posted in any SEC game last season." I still think the Missouri defense should be good and I don't think they are going to struggle with the speed and skill of UT nearly the same way they did with Bama. In the past, the Saban tree has struggled

with QBs with mobility and that can improv. Pruitt and Co didn't have that dilemma against SC. I can see the Mizz DL neutralizing the UT run game pretty well again so this game prob comes down to JG arm. Hes an up and down player and I would classify game 1 as below average.

I think this line is a bit inflated, but after missing the early ride on the total, I'll prob just take it as a free look. I cant see much that compels me to lay 2 TD in this spot. Respective competiton week one has beefed this up a bit, IMO. If UT were to take money

and I could get Mizz at 14, I think I would play it for a bit. UT does get 5 star OL Cade Mays back this week after the check cleared with the league office, so they should improve on the OL here as well. Trey Smith should play but the talented OT did hurt his shoulder

Missouri has a talented CB dinged up as well. If I were Drink, I would be scheming up a bunch of ways to attack the slot corner again until he can defend himself. Drink knows offense, so he should. I'll go Vols 27-20.

Gonna drop some key play notes for sake of time on the Aub/Uk recap

Kentucky hit WR screen on 3rd and 9 on busted tackle
By Ali to convert and then they gashed on ground with a smoke TD to finish 7-0

Couple nice passes and Aub then converts 2 XP to go up 8-7 end 1 Q

Coverage bust by auburn and Ali big gainer squandered

Kentucky scores and should have gone up 14-8 with 20 seconds to go but refs overturn. Wilson throws pick in end zone and returned by auburn for TD but then the refs overturn that for targeting on a crack back.

So it’s still 8-7 at half but should have been UK 14-8

Auburn lob to Williams on broken play crosser for his second big gainer. Williams with great extended catch for TD. 15-7 5 to go 3 Q

Kentucky gets throwing rhythm and scores nice drive to go down 15-13

Kentucky ball back and then Wilson doesn’t hold ball and fumbles on own 30. Auburn ball in RZ up 15-13 w 12 to play. Grown man TD to Seth Williams again in a poster. 22-13 w 10 to play.

Kentucky forced to punt and punter goes rogue, calls his own number and

UK turns over on the 25 again with another auburn drive starting in RZ.

Auburn hits go ball for TD w 8 to play on 25 yard TD drive. 29-13

Kentucky long drive gets ball into RZ. WR screen under 2 to play. Fumble on the auburn 10 yard line. 3 TO in 2H for Kentucky and lose 29-13

UK 21-15 FD edge, 384-324 total yardage, 239-233 passing, 145-91 rushing, 4.9-4.8 YPP edge, 36 minute TOP, but -3 in TO (really -4)

Ole Miss @ Kentucky (-6/61.5) If I hadnt been indoctrinated in the ways of the SEC and their team logos I may just consider going over here. Hard for me to go over a number in 60s with Kentucky playing even if I think it's prob the most likely outcome. I'll watch and look live

I dont think theres anyway that Ole Miss' line will be able to stand up to UK's OL. It really comes down to can they hit enough chunk plays and not just grind them down? Based on what I saw last week from the Land Sharks, maybe, probably, but this UK passing game leaves much

to be desired. Gatewood got the waiver, but I imagine he will be used in packages rather than a wholesale change. I'm not sure how diff things look with him anyway, though he is a very gifted runner so they could run more power stuff with him. I think Ole Miss is gonna have tough

time running the ball. Kentucky held Auburn to something like two explosive runs last week and both of those were a mild explosion, if memory serves. The one area where I imagined UK would be better was in secondary. They were so good there last year, and maybe they were/are and

its simply that Seth Williams is a grown man NFL WR and that's not something that's a weekly staple of the SEC East. I remember the go ball to Stove for 6 and Schwartz had a couple of screens that he did damage after catch, so perhaps I'm being too harsh on the UK secondary?

Its easier for me to trust UK if I had to pick a side and I generally think their trench advantage, which I assumed they would have least game and they did, will bode well for them. I don't have to speculate in this one, they are going to smesh in the trenches.

Feels like the total has gotten away from me some and I just cant pull trigger right now, I just hadn't worked this game early on. I will look at some other options in this one before I decide on anything. Let's say Cats 38-30.

Auburn @ Georgia (-6.5/44.5) Boy, did this game lose some sizzle after a pair of week one clunkers from each side. Georgia was a tale of two QBs. There was Mathis and then Bennett. Mathis in the 1H, they avg 1.9 YPP. 26 plays, 50 yards. When SB came in, 5.7 YPP. 52 plays, 296 yds

I watched Mathis as a recruit for our annual guide and I was very surprised he was getting offers from big P5 schools. I just never saw it and then I forgot about him entirely only to be reminded of him when my timeline told me Newman was scared of him and thats why he opted out!

Well, safe to stay that his era has come and gone. Good story of overcoming, all the best to him in the future. The good news is that the Dawgs got clearance for JT Daniels and now they can go to plan B instead of plans C or D. I doubt Kirby names him before the game and if any1

can screw the pooch w a QB its that fella, but we should see Daniels now and as long as he's healthy, for the foreseeable future. The entire offense was erratic but it found rhythm once Bennett came in last week. The line didn't play well to start the game but they settled in

and Zeus really looked good running the ball. He was decisive, quick, and saw the field well. Cook is another guy that I never understood and felt that way again after Saturday. In general, Monken tried to insulate Mathis and they ran on first down their first four poss

for a grand total of 8 yards. So by trying to protect mathis they got him in obvious passing downs and he was totally lost. If I wouldn't have known different, I woulda thought the offense I saw hadn't seen a change in OC, they just got insecure at QB. Inexcusable, really.

Once Bennett came in, they started running more uptempo and throwing the ball around and letting him use his mobility to extend and create. Most run games need a vertical passing game to open lanes, but Monken's has always been that way and they had none of it with Mathis

and they are honestly gonna be fairly limited with Bennett if they choose to go that route. Daniels is capable of working that game and Pickens aDOT of 21 yards actually was the highest in the SEC last week, they just couldn't find him enough. Imagine JTD force feeds him this wk

and they give him some easy pitch and catch, like we saw in the most beautiful of beautiful performances in the Sugar Bowl. Auburn had guys running open in their secondary, Kentucky just doesn't have enough dudes and Terry didn't help. I think UK showed Aub front can be moved

but the UGA team I saw that was one dimensional and predictable wont cut it. I think we see a better effort with a real QB. I think Auburn is really going to struggle to run it even more than UGA. The only explosives the Dawgs gave up were to the manchild, Treylon Burks.

Unfortunately, they play his grizzly cousin this week, Seth Williams. Gus is known to operate with some tempo and I think they will continue to use it here with Morris as we saw last week. Georgia ran 89 plays last week. Thats something weve never seen from them before.

This total opened 38.5 and I tried to bet over but it moved to 40.5 and I got that. I was fine with that number whether or not JTD was cleared, but I hoped he may be. Then once I saw it was official, I got some more over 42. If you are new to totals betting, I get it, instinct

tells you this a dead ringer for under. If it's Army/Navy, sure, but in a game that doesn't involve Soldier Field, December, the Bears, and the Vikings, it's highly inappropriate for a college total. Look how much BS and trash happened in both of these teams games last week.

Safe to say the offense was putrid, no team managed 5 YPP in either game, yet there were 47 and 42 points scored and one could argue plenty left on the field in both. Its a matter or principle and this is a principle game for me. Win/lose, don't matter. A man got to have a code

I'm not saying this thing should fly over the current numbers, but a 38.5 opener is like a ground stash out in the open when Omar on the block - it gots to be got. Dawgs win 27-20.

LSU @ Vanderbilt (+21/50.5) what was this line a week ago? -31? I will take the discount. LSU was harried by the miss st defense and torched for 383 yards after catch by Mike Leach. Many factors led to the sum total, but I’m not pressing a panic button against the leagues worst

team. Prior to last seasons 66-38 LSU win, Vandy hadn’t scored 10 points in the previous 6 meeting dating back to 1991. LSU will have the game script to run the ball more effectively in this game and take pressure off the QB who was indecisive in a 350 passing yard loss.

Vandy is going to have to decide what they wanna stop and I assume it will be the run and that where I think these talented LSU pass catchers will really get off this week. Coach O demands 50/50 run pass this week and honestly that’s prob a great recipe for an LSU cover in this

matchup. Stingley should return and Vandy group of pass catchers are bottom of barrel in SEC and not gonna win the 1v1 we saw State torch them with all game due to defensive busts, great throws, and a bevy of good skill talent. This will be Vandy TRFR QBs second collegiate

start and I assume Pelini after not sleeping for a calendar week will be ready to rip some heads off. I took LSU -19.5/20 and it could be the biggest favorite I back all year. It’s not typically my lane. Too big an overreaction IMO, 38-6. Go Tigahs

Arkansas @ Miss State (-17/69) So, Miss St/LSU total opened 48.5 and this is three TD higher. It just doesn't sit right with me. If I had stones, I would take the under. I'm concerned with pace. Arkansas barely had the ball last week, but we know Briles wants to move.

Miss St with a record-setting passing performance last week. I believe they ran 46 plays in the 1H. Leach typically average to above average in pace. 160 snaps last week and the Hogs game had 156. I detailed the UGA woes on off, but some of that needs to be credited to Arky

I just don't have enough conviction about their defense. They were awful last year, that we know, but it was worse against run than the pass, which is what Miss St will do. They lose a bunch of sacks from last year and KJC showed if he has time, he will rip. I do think Odom helps

and on offense, they will clearly have an easier time with Miss State than they did Georgia where their only source of offense was feeding Burks in the passing game. New staffs, but four of last five matchups in series featured a 50 burger by one of these teams. I'm trying to

talk myself out of getting froggy and taking this under! Both Hog DE were beat up last game and a vet DB they expected back but missed last week just opted out. The Hog OL had some comm issues last week and I think that stifled the offense at times. They also had terrible

field position. They averaged starting at own 19 while UGA averaged own 45. It makes their defensive performance a bit more impressive, holding UGA to less than 5 YPP and defending almost 90 snaps. I'm talking in circles. Who knows? 41-24 Cowbell.

Baylor @ WVU (+2.5/53.5) Hadnt worked this game until tonight. Baylor beat KU 47-14 but it was rather unimpressive. They returned 2 kickoffs for touchdowns and got a safety, so that's 16 points. Their OL was generally really bad and Brewer is still playing like a wildman.

He was knocked out of game for a few plays, per usual, but returned. They didn't hit hardly any deep shots, lot of quick game stuff and his receivers both didn't separate and didn't hold onto the ball all that well. Brewer wasn't sharp either. It wasn't a good offensive perf

like you would believe with a 47 point output. They also hit a bust on what I believe was a wheel route after Kansas got a personal foul and extended drive. KU QB Jalon Daniels is a true dual threat QB, TrFR making first start, legit 4.5 speed. Lester compares him to Cam.

All things considered, he looked like FR, albeit one that could be really fun in a few years if Miles can keep adding talent around him. They heavily targeted Pooka in gameplan but varying levels of success. The KU OL couldn't really hold up. Baylor was in backfield most snaps

Daniels throws a 100 MPH heater but problem is that was his only pitch when he could have used a few changeups. I only recall one deep ball early in game to Parchment that was nearly a TD. Most other stuff was like Baylor plan and that was short and intermediate. They will be

a running outfit that uses some tempo when things go well for them. Baylor only had a 24-20 FD edge, 352-328 yardage edges, certainly not indicative of a typical 33 point smeshing. WVU killed EKU 56-10 and then just lost to Ok St 27-13. Was another game where final was wonky

There werent many explosive plays. Ok St had a 56 yard fumble rec TD, Ok State had a long 50ish yard TD run by Brown, and WVU slot Winston got in between two guys on a slant and had 70 yard TD. WVU had more FD and yards than Ok State but the defensive TD and a TD by Hubbard late

made the score look worse than it prob really was. Sanders was still out at QB for Ok St and the big TrFR played instead. He is meh, not really a threat to run and this OL isn't playing well right now. Many key elements absent from typical high octane Gundy offense.

I think the WVU/Baylor game has potential to be pretty low scoring. The one edge that WVU may have right now is a better looking passing game. I dont think either team will run it all that well. I have a lean to the under here but gonna sleep on it. I'll go with WVU 23-20.

Out of time.

TCU @ Texas (-10.5/63) Tried to bet Over 54.5 at open and it steamed like crazy. Finally managed to get 59 when dust settled few hours later. G Patt always plays em tough and Duggan back. Ehlinger beat up some. Texas wins 35-28.

Texas Tech @ Kansas State (-2.5/63.5) Took over 60.5. Will continue on TT overs until something changes. K State pace still slow but so many explosive plays, TT will play much faster than Oak and pose similar issues on offense. 35-34 K St

Ok State @ Kansas (+23.5/53.5) Took Under 56. Sanders should be back which hurts that position. Ok St OL a mess and offense following suit. KU didn't do a poor job against Baylor desire score. New TrFR QB likes to run and should be ground heavy all around. Pace dicey. 38-14 OSU

OU @ ISU (+7.5/63.5) Took ISU +10, missed 12 at open. Back to riding ISU when a green QB facing their unique scheme for first time. ISU should have more balance. Need good Brock for the outright, 30-27 Clones.

That will conclude the weekly program. Will be around a good bit tomorrow and will fire away on some props in this thread. Enjoy the weekend, good luck!