+UPDATE+

Boris Johnson's "Japanese gamble" implodes.

Earlier this year UK govt attempted a high-stakes gamble with UK car industry.

Little remarked upon outside the industry at the time - it was an attempt to "do" Brexit & save the jobs of car workers.

He just lost.

A Thread
3/

The point was Nissan & Toyota - key Japanese car makers in UK - were to be safeguarded against Brexit.

He needed to do that as automotive sector worth ÂŁ18bn to the UK economy & directly employing 168,000 people with hundreds of thousands more in supply, retail & servicing.
4/

Problem is 'rules of origin' demand 55% of value of a good must come from UK or EU to benefit from tariff reductions – because usually the figure is only 44% for a “Made in UK” car.

Johnson tried to convince the Japanese he could win the EU round to his "Japanese gamble".
5/

As confirmed today, Johnson's gamble failed.

Senior car industry figures are complaining the govt could have won a deal that safeguarded Japanese input....but UK prioritised fishing rights & state aid powers instead.

So what happens now? https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54345882
6/

The Japanese are now faced with a dilemna. They must stump up extra costs of reengineering EU (or UK) made content into UK cars or take a hit in reduced exports to EU through their UK factories.

The probability is that a mix of both will happen.

But one thing is clear....
7/

Boris Johnson gambled with UK car workers' livelihoods for Fish & Dominc Cummings' state aid obsession - and lost.

Now we are reliant on a combination of Japanese & EU decision making to see if the UK car industry survives.

/ends
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