I mentioned yesterday that I no longer will be a regular on Twitter. Still the case.
On @realmoney this morning I present the contrary - if you get a chance go over and read the full analysis:
Will We See a "Biden Bump" Which May Levitate Stocks Throughout the Balance of the Year?
* The 2016 Presidential election provided the contrary - a Trump win and an advancing stock market
* The 2020 Presidential election may provide another contrary - a Biden win and an advancing
market
* President Trump's path to victory is narrowing
* It now appears increasingly likely, based on the betting parlors and polls, that former Vice President Biden will be elected President
* A possible Democratic sweep could actually (and unexpectedly) benefit stocks as,
with a non litigated election, would come large fiscal relief in February, 2020
Bottom Line
While I have expressed and continue to be concerned with intermediate-term issues that could serve as market headwinds in 2021 (a disappointing economic and profit outlook relative to
consensus, the rapid accumulation of private and public debt, the specter of rising inflation, the lack of global cooperation and coordination (and its impact on world trade), elevated valuations, the likely diminished impact of monetary policy (the Fed is "pushing on a string",
the need for higher corporate tax rates to help fund the exponential growth in national debt), etc.) - much needed (large) fiscal stimulus pushed by Democratic Party initiatives, likely vaccine and therapeutic advancements and seasonal strength in equities
(within the context of unprecedented easy money) are the ingredients of a possible "Biden Bump" in the months ahead.
And, a changed market structure (dominated by passive products and strategies that worship at the altar of price momentum) - in which "buyers live higher (and
sellers live lower)" may be the cherry on top of a fourth quarter market advance.
In summary, I would not view what appears to be an increasingly likely Democratic victory as a reason to sell stocks. Indeed, consider this contrary... that a possible Biden Bump (higher) in
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