So after another 0-3 start for the #Broncos, I've been having some thoughts, and decided that I should share them. I was asked to come out of retirement recently, and this is not that, but here goes. I was optimistic coming into this season, but cautiously so. 1/X

I perceived the team as also being cautious with expectations, particularly vis-à-vis the young offense. There's really just a lot of moving parts, and not a lot of reliable things to be sure about. What has been happening is a stealth rebuild without uttering the word. 2/X

I have always wished the #Broncos would be open to articulating the need to sometimes rebuild, and to acknowledge when one is underway, but alas, that's not how they roll. Having a QB with only 5 (pretty impressive) starts is a risk factor. 3/X

Relying on 4 rookie starters is a risk factor. Not addressing OT, and having Ja'Wuan James opt out for COVID reasons is another risk factor. Bradley Chubb coming back in less than a year on an ACL tear is a risk factor. How much would they miss Chris Harris and Derek Wolfe? 4/X

On balance, though, it seemed like there was sufficient talent on hand to be competitive, and to improve as the year went on. You could have made a plausible case that they would get a Wild Card spot and more than a few people did. And then the injuries began with Von Miller. 5/X

And then AJ Bouye, and Drew Lock, and Courtland Sutton, and Jurrell Casey, and Elijah Wilkinson. Suddenly, this is a depleted roster that is probably going to be in the running for a high 2021 draft pick. That's not the worst thing ever, but it's painful getting there. 6/X

I was thinking about this, and the situation reminds me of the 2018 San Francisco 49ers. They were a trendy pick to break through for a playoff spot after going 6-10 (overachieving and finishing strong) and trading for Jimmy Garoppolo in Kyle Shanahan's first season. 7/X

They started 1-1, and lost Garoppolo in the 3rd game of the season, and ended up going 4-12. They were pretty competitive most weeks, but just weren't quite good enough to win most games. Notably, they beat the #Broncos in Week 14 behind a good Nick Mullens game. 8/X

George Kittle, DeForest Buckner, and Fred Warner had breakout years, and Shanahan was lauded for his excellent work. But still. They'd gone 2-14 (under Chip Kelly), 6-10, and 4-12 entering 2019. There was some skepticism. How well would Garoppolo get back? 9/X

In 2019, the 49ers went 13-3 and played in the Super Bowl. Basically, the injury to Garoppolo prevented a 6-10 team from making a step up to the Wild Card level, and they got Nick Bosa with the second pick of the Draft and Deebo Samuel in the second round. 10/X

The 49ers skipped the step of being a Wild Card, and went straight to being a Super Bowl contender. It was better for them, in the long arc of the franchise, to get Bosa and Samuel than it would have been to be a sacrificial lamb in a WC game. 11/X

I see a lot of parallels to the #Broncos right now. They've lost key guys to injuries, and they're just not as talented as we thought they'd be. They're well-coached, and they're competitive, but coming up short. Some of you are all "Fire Fangio" but miss me with that. 12/X

A quality program is being put in place, underneath the surface of winning and losing, for the first time in a long time. In the Elway-as-GM era, there hasn't been a consistent coach-driven program. It's been GM-driven. That has proven to be sub-optimal in the NFL. 13/X

This could have been the Step Up To Wild Card year for the #Broncos, but it looks like it probably won't be. Instead, it can be the Develop Young Talent year, and the See If You Have a QB year. (I am personally optimistic that they might.) 14/X

Instead of picking ~22nd, they will get an opportunity to probably pick in the Top 5. If they're not sold on Lock, there will be QBs there. If they are, they can take a blue-chipper at another position. If they end up at #1, they take Trevor Lawrence, regardless. 15/X

In any case, through all of this bad injury luck, and through the weirdness of a COVID season, there's a good opportunity to continue to develop the program for future success. And maybe, ultimately skip a step like the 49ers did. 16/16