I don't casually dismiss the polls that consistently show Donald Trump is behind. But I am convinced he is going to win, for many reasons.

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1/ First, it is hard to imagine that Trump is going to lose his 2016 vote share among whites without a college degree. Trump has successfully renegotiated NAFTA, introduced tariffs on steel and aluminium, and cut immigration.

1(b)/ True, Biden is routinely hitting or surpassing the 50% mark in national polling. However, these polls are heavily weighted toward the Dems: Ipsos (+13), Quinnipiac (+10), Siena (+9), Hart Research (+12), and YouGov (+11).

2/ Second, Joe Biden is not running as strongly among core Democratic groups as Hillary did back in 2016. Incredibly, Trump is outperforming his 2016 numbers with Black and Hispanic Floridians. This should ring alarm bells for the DNC.

3/ Despite the constant drubbing Trump takes from elite media, Trump generates more enthusiasm among GOP supporters than Biden does among Democrats. This is important because enthusiasm is what decides whether voters stay home or go to the polling station.

4/ Similarly, if you look at presidential primary results over polling, Biden's poor showing puts him at a significant disadvantage. According to Professor Helmut Norpoth’s Primary Model, Trump has a 90% chance of winning re-election. https://news.stonybrook.edu/facultystaff/maverick-modeller-helmut-norpoth-predicts-another-win-for-trump/

5/ Clearly, Biden is hoping that Trump’s mishandling of COVID-19 will hurt him at the ballot box. Yet, the Dems’ unflinching support for Black Lives Matter (BLM) has weakened this narrative. BLM routinely flout social distancing guidance.

6/ On top of this, Biden will be tarred-and-feathered with the vortex of violence and destabilisation condoned and often enabled by Democratic governors. Richard Nixon, a president less loved than Trump, managed to win his second term in a landslide by campaigning against crime.

7/ Finally, according to the Democracy Institute (DI), a nonpartisan polling firm that accurately predicted Brexit and the 2016 U.S. election, President Trump will win the 2020 Electoral College with 319 votes. The poll was calculated with a D+2 partisan weighting.

7(b)/ Patrick Basham, the Director of the DI in Washington, told the Sunday Express newspaper that: “One of Trump's pollsters reached out to tell me their numbers match up well with mine.”