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Over the weekend, I wrote on why the doomsday scenarios about Trump trying to steal the election are largely misplaced. THREAD https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/09/27/opinion/trump-might-try-steal-election-he-probably-wouldnt-succeed/?p1=StaffPage
One point, in particular, featured in the recent piece by @bartongellman in the Atlantic, overstates the likelihood that Trump will be ahead on election night because of delays in counting mail-in ballots.
Since mail-in ballots are often reported first it's more likely that Biden Is ahead. There are only two battleground states - Wisconsin and Pennsylvania - where mail-in votes are not processed before Election Day.
Today, the Washington Post indirectly pokes another hole in the notion that Trump can steal the election. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts-voting-fraud-claims-republicans/2020/09/28/ceff1184-fda2-11ea-b555-4d71a9254f4b_story.html
The doomsayers' argument relies on the idea that Trump-friendly conservative judges will accept his campaign's dubious legal arguments about mail-in ballots being fraudulent. But the Post looked at 90 election cases that have been decided this year and found the opposite.
"A review by The Washington Post ... found that judges have been broadly skeptical as Republicans use claims of voter fraud to argue against such changes, declining to endorse the GOP’s arguments or dismissing them as they examined limits on mail voting."
Here's another key point: "The Post found that judges appointed by Republicans and Democrats alike have been dubious of GOP arguments that lowering barriers to mail voting could lead to widespread fraud."
The Post finds that the GOP's arguments against mail-in voting have been particularly unsuccessful.
Of course, things could change as these cases go to higher appeals courts or even the Supreme Court. But it's striking how little purchase GOP arguments against mail-in voting are receiving from state and federal judges.
If people want to argue that conservative judges will help Trump brazenly steal the election, that's fine. But why isn't it happening now? Why aren't Trump-friendly judges ruling in his campaign's favor?
If conservative judges wanted to help Trump's reelection effort the time to do it is now - before votes are counted, not after the election when there is a good chance that Biden will be leading in the vote count.
