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Which players should you foul going in for a layup/dunk?
Short thread...
Short thread...
The simple answer: players who are good at layups but bad at free throws.
But which players give you the best & worst value when you foul them under the hoop?
For the purposes of this exercise, we& #39;ll look at field goal attempts within three feet of the basket.
But which players give you the best & worst value when you foul them under the hoop?
For the purposes of this exercise, we& #39;ll look at field goal attempts within three feet of the basket.
Obviously, not all shots within 3& #39; are layups/dunks, but it& #39;s a decent approximation.
In the last five NBA seasons, there are 167 players who have attempted 500 field goals inside 3& #39; and 500 free throws.
For each of those players, we calculate two things:
In the last five NBA seasons, there are 167 players who have attempted 500 field goals inside 3& #39; and 500 free throws.
For each of those players, we calculate two things:
1) Expected points scored on two free throws
2) Expected points scored on a field goal attempt
1) = FT% * 2
2) = FG% inside 3& #39; * 2
TL;DR: we want players who have a higher FG% inside 3& #39; than FT% because on average, one FGA will produce more points than two FTAs.
2) Expected points scored on a field goal attempt
1) = FT% * 2
2) = FG% inside 3& #39; * 2
TL;DR: we want players who have a higher FG% inside 3& #39; than FT% because on average, one FGA will produce more points than two FTAs.
Results: only 25 of the 167 in question are worth fouling intentionally under the basket.
Of course, this result comes with no consideration of and-ones, shot-blocking, the variety of shots that can occur within 3& #39; of the hoop, and a bunch of other factors.
Of course, this result comes with no consideration of and-ones, shot-blocking, the variety of shots that can occur within 3& #39; of the hoop, and a bunch of other factors.
And here are the players you really don& #39;t want to foul under the hoop:
This thread lacks a lot of context and is in no way conclusive, but as @bostonsportsinf suggested to me, maybe teams should try to foul a whole lot less often under the bucket.
