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Which players should you foul going in for a layup/dunk?
Short thread...
Short thread...
The simple answer: players who are good at layups but bad at free throws.
But which players give you the best & worst value when you foul them under the hoop?
For the purposes of this exercise, we'll look at field goal attempts within three feet of the basket.
But which players give you the best & worst value when you foul them under the hoop?
For the purposes of this exercise, we'll look at field goal attempts within three feet of the basket.
Obviously, not all shots within 3' are layups/dunks, but it's a decent approximation.
In the last five NBA seasons, there are 167 players who have attempted 500 field goals inside 3' and 500 free throws.
For each of those players, we calculate two things:
In the last five NBA seasons, there are 167 players who have attempted 500 field goals inside 3' and 500 free throws.
For each of those players, we calculate two things:
1) Expected points scored on two free throws
2) Expected points scored on a field goal attempt
1) = FT% * 2
2) = FG% inside 3' * 2
TL;DR: we want players who have a higher FG% inside 3' than FT% because on average, one FGA will produce more points than two FTAs.
2) Expected points scored on a field goal attempt
1) = FT% * 2
2) = FG% inside 3' * 2
TL;DR: we want players who have a higher FG% inside 3' than FT% because on average, one FGA will produce more points than two FTAs.
Results: only 25 of the 167 in question are worth fouling intentionally under the basket.
Of course, this result comes with no consideration of and-ones, shot-blocking, the variety of shots that can occur within 3' of the hoop, and a bunch of other factors.
Of course, this result comes with no consideration of and-ones, shot-blocking, the variety of shots that can occur within 3' of the hoop, and a bunch of other factors.
And here are the players you really don't want to foul under the hoop:
This thread lacks a lot of context and is in no way conclusive, but as @bostonsportsinf suggested to me, maybe teams should try to foul a whole lot less often under the bucket.
