Read on Twitter
40 years ago today: Julian Simon & Paul Ehrlich agreed to their famous proxy bet on the future of humanity. Ehrlich and his partner John Holdren bet $1,000 that a basket of commodities chosen by them (chromium, copper, nickel, tin + tungsten) would cost more in 1990 than in 1980.
This WSJ review of Paul Saban’s book The Bet provides a great overview of the bet and the Simon-Ehrlich battles.
I highly recommend the book (which does not take sides), but wanted to share some other less appreciated anecdotes about the story… https://www.wsj.com/articles/book-review-the-bet-by-paul-sabin-1377894827
I highly recommend the book (which does not take sides), but wanted to share some other less appreciated anecdotes about the story… https://www.wsj.com/articles/book-review-the-bet-by-paul-sabin-1377894827
First, I think that many remember this as an academic spat between dueling philosophies on environmental issues. It was that, but it was by no means obscure. Ehrlich was given a massive platform for his warnings of impending doom.
For example, Ehrlich appeared on Johnny Carson’s Tonight Show more than 20 times! He was a certified celebrity, and were it not for Simon, Americans may not have heard other points of view.
Everyone knows that Simon won, but in fairness he did have some luck on his side in terms of the time window chosen for the bet. The basket of metals Ehrlich chose has gone up over certain periods in time.
When the basket is big enough to account for the swings of individual commodities, however, the trend in commodity prices has been steadily declining. Simon may have been lucky but his fundamental point was also right.
The other thing that sticks out to me is what a sore loser Ehrlich was. He showed no Grace in defeat, and was defiant that Simon was even right on the basics. In 1995, he told the NYT, "If Simon disappeared from the face of the Earth, that would be great for humanity." WTF
The other tidbit that gets lost is the back and forth over a follow-up bet. Simon attempted to convince Ehrlich to accept a $20k bet on broader human welfare trends. Ehrlich countered with an offer to bet on enviro trends such as ozone and NOx
I chuckle at this one, because as we know, here again Ehrlich would have been wrong, at least with respect to U.S. air quality, which of course has improved greatly since the 1990s https://gispub.epa.gov/air/trendsreport/2019/
In a long NYTimes piece on the bet by John Tierney (worth a read), I love Simon's summation of Ehrlich's repeated failed doom & gloom claims. "As soon as one predicted disaster doesn't occur, the doomsayers skip to another" 30 years later, this quote still fits a lot of issues.
Link to Tierney NYT article: https://www.nytimes.com/1990/12/02/magazine/betting-on-the-planet-505690.html
Finally, something about Julian Simon that I think of every time I'm sitting at a gate waiting to board an overbooked flight: he created our modern system of dealing with airline bookings, saving travelers headaches and saving airlines billions of 
. https://news.illinois.edu/view/6367/205868
. https://news.illinois.edu/view/6367/205868
I'm admittedly a fanboy of Simon, but Paul Saban's book presents a balanced look at his career and sometimes abrasive personality. It's a quick and easy read - highly recommend. https://www.amazon.com/Bet-Ehrlich-Julian-Gamble-Earth%C2%92s/dp/0300176481
BTW I'd be remiss not to mention that our friends at @ceidotorg are presenting their annual Julian Simon Memorial Award tomorrow (which is what made me think of doing this thread in the first place) https://cei.org/content/julian-l-simon-memorial-award-online-event-feat-steven-horwitz
