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Cat Rock posted a thoughtful presentation with their thesis on $JET
https://justeatmustdeliver.com/letters
In the spirit of debate, let’s dig in:
https://justeatmustdeliver.com/letters
In the spirit of debate, let’s dig in:
BUT HOLD ON - JET the Meituan of the West?
Meituan is THE example that shows why the JET approach is wrong: with enough scale/density, 1P delivery works - easily.
Someone will end up w/higher density, structurally lower cost - share loss is structural https://twitter.com/CharlieZvible/status/1304405099876409346?s=20
Meituan is THE example that shows why the JET approach is wrong: with enough scale/density, 1P delivery works - easily.
Someone will end up w/higher density, structurally lower cost - share loss is structural https://twitter.com/CharlieZvible/status/1304405099876409346?s=20
JET relies on this logic: 1P logistics doesn’t work in food delivery (doordash, ubereats, deliveroo going to zero - or at least "become rational"), big urban markets all that matter, 1P players won’t be successful adding 3P. Their mgmt has never fully bought into logistics.
But
But
...but that logic started to break in the US
JET did a defensive deal to acquire the share loser in a 4 player market with no geographic overlap.
Core to JET is the belief that the UBER/Doordash business models don’t work.
So how does JET plan to turn around GRUB?
Core to JET is the belief that the UBER/Doordash business models don’t work.
So how does JET plan to turn around GRUB?
Copy those same strategies from Uber/Doordash they said don't work.
(taking liberties and pasting together 2 of their slides - left slide tied to right - for ease of illustration)
Increasing discounts:
(taking liberties and pasting together 2 of their slides - left slide tied to right - for ease of illustration)
Increasing discounts:
Adding “Negative Unit Economics” Chains
Move away from what made TKWY successful:
$UBER / Doordash are adding 3P and takeout (free $$), adding promoted listings (free $$), and seeing mix shift from Chains to independents ($$). GRUB is adding Chains, already has Promoted Listings and 3P, and adding 1P (which it thinks lights money on fire).
Uber
Grub 
Uber
Grub
Unlabeled, how different does this look vs. 3P eBay in [2012] against AMZN?
JET: it’s not too late, to say I’m sorry. And walk away.
https://twitter.com/CharlieZvible/status/1291518286748954628?s=20
![Unlabeled, how different does this look vs. 3P eBay in [2012] against AMZN?JET: it’s not too late, to say I’m sorry. And walk away. https://twitter.com/CharlieZvible/status/1291518286748954628?s=20](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EjGM2hhWkAAUAKF.png "Unlabeled, how different does this look vs. 3P eBay in [2012] against AMZN?JET: it’s not too late, to say I’m sorry. And walk away. https://twitter.com/CharlieZvible/status/1291518286748954628?s=20")
JET: it’s not too late, to say I’m sorry. And walk away.
https://twitter.com/CharlieZvible/status/1291518286748954628?s=20
