Now that the window for nominations for Labour's NEC elections has closed, what can the 3938 nominations tell us? @labtowin have swept up a lot of nominations, but it appears that it will be an uphill battle for them to secure a majority of seats. (thread) https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/3868033/

Labour to Win have undeniably exceeded expectations, securing nominations where they couldn't have been predicted to, with their strongest support in London. Meanwhile, Grassroots Voice (Momentum) has the strongest support in smaller-membership CLPs, such as in the South West.

Looking at the results of 453 CLPs: 216 produced results characteristic of using FPTP, 192 - STV, and 45 - uncontested. Of those CLPs using STV, Labour to Win and Tribune won a plurality in 72 CLPs, Grassroots Voice and LLA won in 97 CLPs, and 23 CLPs produced a comparative tie.

If I weight the results to the size of CLP membership and convert the FPTP and uncontested CLPs' results to the results most likely to have been produced under a STV scenario, then we get a picture of where the balance of support was in this year's NEC nominations.

This share of the vote is largely reflected in the largest CLPs' results. It increasingly appears that this election is going to be exclusively and hotly contested between Labour to Win, Grassroots Voice and Open Labour, but will one of these 3 manage to win a majority of seats?

Using STV samples and CLP nomination results, and estimating a vote for each of the 453 CLPs under a STV scenario, weighted by CLP membership size, it is possible to predict how the NEC elections will go, if members vote in the same way as their local CLP meetings voted...

The nominations vote would result in Labour to Win securing 4 seats and Open Labour securing 1, while Grassroots Voice (Momentum) would win 4 seats, depriving them of their current majority of NEC CLP reps. Both @lukeakehurst and Ann Black are on course to be returned to the NEC.

However, Grassroots Voice have the advantage of only having 6 candidates, while Labour to Win have endorsed 9 candidates across 3 slates. The concentration of their vote means its difficult for GV to win fewer than 4 seats. LtW have a hill to climb to break that 4 seat barrier.

What is certain is that the Labour Party appears to be on course to have a more pluralistic NEC, due largely to the change of the counting method to single-transferable vote, and Momentum having lost the support and vote of the majority of Labour party members over the past year.