There are many theoretical reasons bitcoins shouldn& #39;t work, but until it stops working, these theories aren& #39;t worth much.

There are many theoretical reasons @planB& #39;s s2f model shouldn& #39;t work, but until it starts making wrong predictions, these theories aren& #39;t worth much.

As an Austrian I was extremely skeptical that this model could work and laughed at it initially. But if you ran this model with pre-2014 data, you can predict 2014-2020 prices with astonishing accuracy. You simply cannot dismiss that with theories for why it shouldn& #39;t work.

The more theoretical reasons you have for why the model shouldn& #39;t work, the more astonishing is the fact that it continues to work. The intelligent response is to try to understand why it& #39;s not failing. The idiot response is to think your theories matter more than reality.

The fact that @100trillionUSD & #39;s model can make reliably accurate predictions about prices is the most serious challenge I have ever seen to Austrian economic methodology. It& #39;s no reason for me to dismiss it, but to think harder about what this means.

In my ECO12 course, I focus the last lecture on analyzing this model from an Austrian perspective. Mises says there are no constants in human action & that& #39;s what makes economic prediction impossible. Could bitcoin& #39;s 21m be the first constant in economics? https://saifedean.com/product/buyeco12-principles-of-economics-ii/">https://saifedean.com/product/b...

Mises& #39; dictum that prediction in economics is impossible is not an article of faith, it& #39;s borne out by a century of economists FAILING to make correct predictions. Once an economist makes reliably accurate predictions, you need to reconsider and try to understand why.