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1/ On Afghan war casualties:
Entire @nytimes project to track casualties stemmed from Kabul/DC's decision to classify figures.
...yet this year, Afg govt has resumed sharing. Its figures are higher than NYT!
By July 31, Kabul said over 3500 troops killed.
https://www.voanews.com/extremism-watch/afghan-government-over-3500-troops-killed-us-taliban-agreement https://twitter.com/asfandyarmir/status/1309941435680976897
Entire @nytimes project to track casualties stemmed from Kabul/DC's decision to classify figures.
...yet this year, Afg govt has resumed sharing. Its figures are higher than NYT!
By July 31, Kabul said over 3500 troops killed.
https://www.voanews.com/extremism-watch/afghan-government-over-3500-troops-killed-us-taliban-agreement https://twitter.com/asfandyarmir/status/1309941435680976897
2/ Kabul's release of shockingly high casualty figures has reversed a trend of last few years: "only give info about successes, not failures".
Seems almost certain this (partial) embrace of transparency is meant to build pressure for a Taliban ceasefire. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/world/asia/afghanistan-security-casualties-taliban.html
Seems almost certain this (partial) embrace of transparency is meant to build pressure for a Taliban ceasefire. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/world/asia/afghanistan-security-casualties-taliban.html
3/ In early 2019, President Ghani made the (real) Afghan forces' fatality figures public.
As the BBC said, "Mr Ghani's decision to reveal new death toll figures is unusual."
But note: the US was just beginning its high profile talks with Taliban. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-47005558
As the BBC said, "Mr Ghani's decision to reveal new death toll figures is unusual."
But note: the US was just beginning its high profile talks with Taliban. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-47005558
4/ After classifying this data for years, Afghan govt's decision to share death toll of troops and police is even more remarkable in context:
In 2020, Kabul officials actually seem to underreport operations & activity (as noted by @AANafgh @KateClark66). https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/war-and-peace/war-in-afghanistan-in-2020-just-as-much-violence-but-no-one-wants-to-talk-about-it/
In 2020, Kabul officials actually seem to underreport operations & activity (as noted by @AANafgh @KateClark66). https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/war-and-peace/war-in-afghanistan-in-2020-just-as-much-violence-but-no-one-wants-to-talk-about-it/
5/ So, what are Afghan forces' casualty numbers? And what do they tell us about the intensity of the conflict, as peace talks have finally commenced?
The NYT's death toll by Oct 2019 was just over 2800 soldiers/police. Not far from 2020's count... https://twitter.com/asfandyarmir/status/1309941435680976897?s=20
The NYT's death toll by Oct 2019 was just over 2800 soldiers/police. Not far from 2020's count... https://twitter.com/asfandyarmir/status/1309941435680976897?s=20
6/ But 2020's toll is lower, and lower than the government's count by 1000 troops.
NYT has always admitted its count is a minimum, difficult to verify across the entire country... https://www.voanews.com/extremism-watch/afghan-government-over-3500-troops-killed-us-taliban-agreement
NYT has always admitted its count is a minimum, difficult to verify across the entire country... https://www.voanews.com/extremism-watch/afghan-government-over-3500-troops-killed-us-taliban-agreement
7/ Another clue in Pentagon report (July): ANDSF death toll "decreased significantly" in 2020, but "remained high." (p.19)
Since then, US mil officials have told me: while Taliban activity continues to rise, ANDSF death toll is "much lower" this year.
https://media.defense.gov/2020/Jul/01/2002348001/-1/-1/1/ENHANCING_SECURITY_AND_STABILITY_IN_AFGHANISTAN.PDF
Since then, US mil officials have told me: while Taliban activity continues to rise, ANDSF death toll is "much lower" this year.
https://media.defense.gov/2020/Jul/01/2002348001/-1/-1/1/ENHANCING_SECURITY_AND_STABILITY_IN_AFGHANISTAN.PDF
8/ Death toll of troops is not only measure of violence, nor of conflict's impact.
Civilian casualties have only dropped 13% from 2019, in spite of the US ending a record-level airstrike campaign, fewer IS-KP attacks.
Targeted killings & IEDs are way up. https://unama.unmissions.org/un-urges-parties-prioritize-protection-civilians-and-start-talks
Civilian casualties have only dropped 13% from 2019, in spite of the US ending a record-level airstrike campaign, fewer IS-KP attacks.
Targeted killings & IEDs are way up. https://unama.unmissions.org/un-urges-parties-prioritize-protection-civilians-and-start-talks
So: the reality is complex.
Certainly, acts of violence have not been reduced; Taliban seem more active, incident-wise, than ever.
Broadly assessed, the deadliness of this violence may be lower. But deaths remain quite high. Far too high for Afghan civilians.
/END
Certainly, acts of violence have not been reduced; Taliban seem more active, incident-wise, than ever.
Broadly assessed, the deadliness of this violence may be lower. But deaths remain quite high. Far too high for Afghan civilians.
/END
