Read on Twitter
1/ On Afghan war casualties:
Entire @nytimes project to track casualties stemmed from Kabul/DC& #39;s decision to classify figures.
...yet this year, Afg govt has resumed sharing. Its figures are higher than NYT!
By July 31, Kabul said over 3500 troops killed.
https://www.voanews.com/extremism-watch/afghan-government-over-3500-troops-killed-us-taliban-agreement">https://www.voanews.com/extremism... https://twitter.com/asfandyarmir/status/1309941435680976897">https://twitter.com/asfandyar...
Entire @nytimes project to track casualties stemmed from Kabul/DC& #39;s decision to classify figures.
...yet this year, Afg govt has resumed sharing. Its figures are higher than NYT!
By July 31, Kabul said over 3500 troops killed.
https://www.voanews.com/extremism-watch/afghan-government-over-3500-troops-killed-us-taliban-agreement">https://www.voanews.com/extremism... https://twitter.com/asfandyarmir/status/1309941435680976897">https://twitter.com/asfandyar...
2/ Kabul& #39;s release of shockingly high casualty figures has reversed a trend of last few years: "only give info about successes, not failures".
Seems almost certain this (partial) embrace of transparency is meant to build pressure for a Taliban ceasefire. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/world/asia/afghanistan-security-casualties-taliban.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/2...
Seems almost certain this (partial) embrace of transparency is meant to build pressure for a Taliban ceasefire. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/world/asia/afghanistan-security-casualties-taliban.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/2...
3/ In early 2019, President Ghani made the (real) Afghan forces& #39; fatality figures public.
As the BBC said, "Mr Ghani& #39;s decision to reveal new death toll figures is unusual."
But note: the US was just beginning its high profile talks with Taliban. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-47005558">https://www.bbc.com/news/worl...
As the BBC said, "Mr Ghani& #39;s decision to reveal new death toll figures is unusual."
But note: the US was just beginning its high profile talks with Taliban. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-47005558">https://www.bbc.com/news/worl...
4/ After classifying this data for years, Afghan govt& #39;s decision to share death toll of troops and police is even more remarkable in context:
In 2020, Kabul officials actually seem to underreport operations & activity (as noted by @AANafgh @KateClark66). https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/war-and-peace/war-in-afghanistan-in-2020-just-as-much-violence-but-no-one-wants-to-talk-about-it/">https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/report...
In 2020, Kabul officials actually seem to underreport operations & activity (as noted by @AANafgh @KateClark66). https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/war-and-peace/war-in-afghanistan-in-2020-just-as-much-violence-but-no-one-wants-to-talk-about-it/">https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/report...
5/ So, what are Afghan forces& #39; casualty numbers? And what do they tell us about the intensity of the conflict, as peace talks have finally commenced?
The NYT& #39;s death toll by Oct 2019 was just over 2800 soldiers/police. Not far from 2020& #39;s count... https://twitter.com/asfandyarmir/status/1309941435680976897?s=20">https://twitter.com/asfandyar...
The NYT& #39;s death toll by Oct 2019 was just over 2800 soldiers/police. Not far from 2020& #39;s count... https://twitter.com/asfandyarmir/status/1309941435680976897?s=20">https://twitter.com/asfandyar...
6/ But 2020& #39;s toll is lower, and lower than the government& #39;s count by 1000 troops.
NYT has always admitted its count is a minimum, difficult to verify across the entire country... https://www.voanews.com/extremism-watch/afghan-government-over-3500-troops-killed-us-taliban-agreement">https://www.voanews.com/extremism...
NYT has always admitted its count is a minimum, difficult to verify across the entire country... https://www.voanews.com/extremism-watch/afghan-government-over-3500-troops-killed-us-taliban-agreement">https://www.voanews.com/extremism...
7/ Another clue in Pentagon report (July): ANDSF death toll "decreased significantly" in 2020, but "remained high." (p.19)
Since then, US mil officials have told me: while Taliban activity continues to rise, ANDSF death toll is "much lower" this year.
https://media.defense.gov/2020/Jul/01/2002348001/-1/-1/1/ENHANCING_SECURITY_AND_STABILITY_IN_AFGHANISTAN.PDF">https://media.defense.gov/2020/Jul/...
Since then, US mil officials have told me: while Taliban activity continues to rise, ANDSF death toll is "much lower" this year.
https://media.defense.gov/2020/Jul/01/2002348001/-1/-1/1/ENHANCING_SECURITY_AND_STABILITY_IN_AFGHANISTAN.PDF">https://media.defense.gov/2020/Jul/...
8/ Death toll of troops is not only measure of violence, nor of conflict& #39;s impact.
Civilian casualties have only dropped 13% from 2019, in spite of the US ending a record-level airstrike campaign, fewer IS-KP attacks.
Targeted killings & IEDs are way up. https://unama.unmissions.org/un-urges-parties-prioritize-protection-civilians-and-start-talks">https://unama.unmissions.org/un-urges-...
Civilian casualties have only dropped 13% from 2019, in spite of the US ending a record-level airstrike campaign, fewer IS-KP attacks.
Targeted killings & IEDs are way up. https://unama.unmissions.org/un-urges-parties-prioritize-protection-civilians-and-start-talks">https://unama.unmissions.org/un-urges-...
So: the reality is complex.
Certainly, acts of violence have not been reduced; Taliban seem more active, incident-wise, than ever.
Broadly assessed, the deadliness of this violence may be lower. But deaths remain quite high. Far too high for Afghan civilians.
/END
Certainly, acts of violence have not been reduced; Taliban seem more active, incident-wise, than ever.
Broadly assessed, the deadliness of this violence may be lower. But deaths remain quite high. Far too high for Afghan civilians.
/END
