A lot of people think the debates won’t matter much and that Biden’s lead is pretty baked in, but keep in mind this is really the first time most voters will actually see of Biden. It has been the most absentee candidacy in recent memory and who knows what people expect to see.

Up until tonight, Biden has really played the role of “generic democrat” in polls. There’s no real enthusiasm for him but he can kind of be whatever you imagined him to be because he has been so absent. What if he delivers a message different than expected?

Biden’s primary debate performances were awful. Horrible when challenged and could beat be described as “well he didn’t stroke out.” His “best” performance was around NV when everyone left him alone because they felt so sad for him.

Sanders screwed up, thought he had it. Then all the other candidates jumped ship to back Biden and the anti-Bern south delivered to resuscitate him. He didn’t actually do anything. He was willed to victory by the establishment terrified of a Sanders win.

So I kind of do think this will be an important night and I don’t think Biden is going to hold up well. 2 hours is a long time when you aren’t sharing the stage with 12 people.