The first U.S. Election poll by @JLPartnersPolls is out today.

With a sample size of 5,000, it finds a 10-point lead for Biden, and that only 2% of swing voters name Supreme Court appointments as one of the top issues facing America.

Thread: (1/7)

As we go into tonight’s debate, Biden has a lead of 10 points with likely voters:

Joe Biden 51%
Donald Trump 41%
Other 2%
Not sure 7%

That is clearly significantly better than Clinton in 2016. (2/7)

Biden has reduced Trump’s 2016 lead with white voters from 15% to 4%, and has also more than halved Trump’s advantage with white voters without college degrees, from 36% to 14%. But Biden has less support than Clinton did with Black voters, and white voters *with* degrees. (3/7)

What do the 4 million undecided voters think? Signs are that they are leaning more towards Biden than Trump, but it’s relatively close – 42% of them say there is a fair/good chance they’ll vote Biden, 34% Trump. (4/7)

The issues agenda is looking *really good* for Biden. In this graph, anything to the right of the y axis is good for Biden, anything above the x axis is salient with voters. Biden has healthcare and the pandemic, Trump jobs. Note how low salience crime and Supreme Court is. (5/7)

How does this look for swing voters? It’s much tighter, with jobs/economy & rebuilding after coronavirus both salient and with Trump. But pandemic + healthcare still resonating for Biden. If you’re the @RNC you want the focus to be on jobs over the next month, not much else (6/7)

So advantage Biden, but if the issue agenda changes, Trump could close the gap.

More to come from this later today, and we will be running more polls in the run up to November – full graphs and data for this wave are at https://www.jlpartners.co.uk/us-polling  and do contact me or @tmlbk (7/7)