Are carbon offsets still hot air? They don't have to be. Offsetting can be a powerful tool to achieve net zero emissions.

Introducing: the Oxford Offsetting Principles
https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/publications/reports/Oxford-Offsetting-Principles-2020.pdf

1/🧵
Two justifiable motivations for offsetting:
1) Taxing yourself - paying a "shadow carbon price" to disincentivise your emitting behavior. Only works when offset price is HIGH enough to motivate change. And...

2/
2) Negating your impact - buying unreproachable offsets that unequivocally eliminate CO2. Only works when offset quality is HIGH (for the moment, that means price is high too)

Regardless of your motivation, the Principles will send you in the right direction.

3/
As offsetting (re)gains momentum, we risk another “race-to-the-bottom” on offset quality. We argue that credible, Paris-compliant offsetting IS possible, but only under certain, stringent conditions...

4/
ONE: "Cut emissions, use high quality offsets, and regularly revise offsetting strategy as best practice evolves"

No excuse not to dramatically cut emissions first to extent practicable, which changes as technologies come available. Offset only the remainder.

5/
High-quality does NOT mean the offset has a cert stamp. That's not enough. Some "species" of offset are fundamentally problematic on the basis of additionality, permanence, improper conversion to CO2e terms, etc.

To clarify, we propose a taxonomy of offsets...

6/
Offsets are either emission reductions or carbon removals, but a further distinction is critical: whether storage is long-lived or short-lived. Short-lived project types could be safe under certain conditions but they have a fundamentally higher risk of reversal back into atm

7/
TWO & THREE: "Shift to long-lived storage" & "Shift to carbon removal offsetting"

Your portfolio of offsets must shift away from short-lived storage toward long-lived storage, AND away from emission reductions toward carbon removal.

8/
These are two separate transitions. Not all carbon removal offsets offer appropriately permanent storage. And many emission reduction offsets do. In advance of global net zero, additional emissions reductions are atmospherically equivalent to carbon removal.

9/
The importance of very long-term storage cannot be overstated - CO2 released by fossil fuel combustion elevates global temperatures for hundreds of thousands of years, so to be fully effective, offsets must (eventually) all be equally permanent

10/
FOUR: "Support the development of net zero aligned offsetting"

Not all of the techs/projects are mature. Long-term offtake agreements are critical to get hq offsets off the ground. Form alliances in your sector to achieve scale for offset purchasing.

11/
Nature-based solutions need support in their own right; don't always have to be conflated with offsetting. If your primary motivation is achieving net zero, make sure you're buying carbon offsets that are first and foremost about eliminating CO2. Co-benefits can come second.

12
Conversely, if you want to halt biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation, you can and should continue to support efforts to do so directly, even once your offsetting portfolio shifts toward long-lived storage.

13/
The Principles could apply equally to carbon credits in regulatory regimes (California ARB, EU-ETS). Voluntary carbon offsetting is a bridge to regulation.

14/
tl;dr: cut emissions first > offset the rest > shift composition of your offsets toward long-lived storage & carbon removal > support nascent techs & a new way of offsetting.

15/
Powerful examples of leadership on offsetting: big corps like @Microsoft and @stripe

And a personal favorite: @jonathancoulton's @JoCoCruise. Net zero cruises are tricky... JCC was receptive and proactive in launching an industry-leading carbon offsetting strategy.

16/16
You can follow @EliMLarson.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: