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This is the story about a relatively unknown woman who one day may share the Nobel Prize for her work on COVID-19.
What makes her journey remarkable is not merely her work, but the personal risks she has taken to share it with the world.
A thread about Dr. Gabriela Gomes. 1/X
What makes her journey remarkable is not merely her work, but the personal risks she has taken to share it with the world.
A thread about Dr. Gabriela Gomes. 1/X
On May 21st she published “Individual variation in susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold” explaining why traditional models which assume equal susceptibility to the virus may be wrong.
This went against scientific consensus. 2/ https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3
This went against scientific consensus. 2/ https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3
On July 16th she published an application of her theory to results from four countries; Belgium, England, Portugal, and Spain.
It showed her models better projected the impact of coronavirus than struggling mainstream models. 3/ https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294v1
It showed her models better projected the impact of coronavirus than struggling mainstream models. 3/ https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294v1
Today, Sept 28th, she published her third study showing that an Infection Fatality Rate of 0.3% is accurately aligned with a 15% herd immunity threshold; two numbers that are consistent with global observations, and directly challenging policy dogma. 4/ https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.26.20202267v1
So why haven’t you heard of this woman’s work yet?
Because publications refuse to publish her work and her data.
She more humbly put it as “Some relevant knowledge is not being communicated widely because science journals refuse to publish it.” 5/ https://twitter.com/mgmgomes1/status/1291162358962937857?s=20
Because publications refuse to publish her work and her data.
She more humbly put it as “Some relevant knowledge is not being communicated widely because science journals refuse to publish it.” 5/ https://twitter.com/mgmgomes1/status/1291162358962937857?s=20
While her scientifically based and data-driven projections for immunity gets rejected from print, the @NEJM instead publishes shaky and unsupported speculations that it’s actually masks which give you immunity. 6/ https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2026913
Her studies better predict covid outcomes than other models, but can't even be printed.
And it’s not her credentials holding her back. She holds a PhD and “20 years of research activity primarily involving mathematical modeling of infectious disease dynamics and epidemiology.“7/
And it’s not her credentials holding her back. She holds a PhD and “20 years of research activity primarily involving mathematical modeling of infectious disease dynamics and epidemiology.“7/
No, what’s holding her back is that her work doesn't support a certain political and scientific groupthink.
One can disagree with her conclusion, but why is her work deemed so dangerous that no journal would even publish it for debate? 8/
One can disagree with her conclusion, but why is her work deemed so dangerous that no journal would even publish it for debate? 8/
Unfortunately, "science" has a long and dark track record of suppressing dissenting beliefs when they undermine the pseudo scientific-political party line.
Apparently the 21st century is no exception. 9/
Apparently the 21st century is no exception. 9/
It may take years or decades, but @mgmgomes1's work cannot be suppressed forever. Along w/Oxford Prof Sunetra Gupta who has advocated for similar concepts, these two women will hopefully one day be honored for their work and their bravery as they have refused to be silenced. 10/
Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.
- Richard Feynman
In questions of science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of a single individual.
— Galileo Galilei
Dr. Gomes should consider herself in good company.
(11/11)
- Richard Feynman
In questions of science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of a single individual.
— Galileo Galilei
Dr. Gomes should consider herself in good company.
(11/11)
