Folks in the media are claiming that bc Trump has more than $400MM in loans maturing over the next few years, he is facing massive defaults and will consequently be desperate to cut a deal.

One the the deals journalists have been referencing is a $100MM loan on Trump Tower (1/) https://twitter.com/mollyfprince/status/1310671196082626560

Trump Tower was valued at $480MM (by a third-party appraiser). That makes the loan ~21% loan to value (LTV). For context, the average securitized loan is 60 - 75% LTV, making this an incredibly low leverage and safe loan.

*For those who care, it's fee simple with full term IO.

The debt service ratio is 2.99x, which means that nearly 3x the amount of cash flow coming from the building alone will cover the debt Trump owes. The building is currently 82% occupied and can hit near vacancy before Trump has to even take a penny from his pocket.

For those bloviating that Trump's a poor real estate investor, this is how great he ACTUALLY is:

Trump can refinance the loan when it matures in 2022 at the same level, OR he can refinance at a standard leverage (i.e. 65%) and walk away with more than $200MM of cash that day.