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I had a chance to read @AlecMacGillis's new story on remote learning. https://www.propublica.org/article/the-students-left-behind-by-remote-learning It's definitely worth a read, but I do feel some important aspects of school reopening debates were omitted or mischaracterized, and I want to lay out a few here /1
Alec is right that risks for children getting severely ill are low, and some politicians, including the Biden campaign, have overstated that. But risks of children transmitting the virus to other adults is real. New CDC study on this just a few weeks ago: https://twitter.com/CDCDirector/status/1304530665052999686
He cites a Post article to say "and so far there was little evidence of the virus spreading inside school buildings." But that article has *huge* caveats, like a school tracker with just a tiny fraction of schools all voluntarily reporting data. /3 https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/feared-covid-outbreaks-in-schools-yet-to-arrive-early-data-shows/2020/09/23/0509bb84-fd22-11ea-b555-4d71a9254f4b_story.html
the data reporting situation on schools is bad. We don't have a good picture of what is going on in schools right now. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/22/us/school-reopenings-coronavirus-reporting.html And we also know some schools are pressuring teachers to stay silent about cases, too https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-08-27/covid-pandemic-u-s-businesses-issue-gag-rules-to-stop-workers-from-talking
Public health experts have been warning about increased transmission risk as the weather cools & humidity drops, & we know poorly ventilated buildings are much greater risks than surfaces like doorknobs + desks. /5
Many districts were doing little to address the legitimate air circulation concerns. Teachers pressuring schools to disclose more especially in August helped move the needle some, but many districts have been extremely slow on ventilation transparency. /6
You can say Trump didn't help the politics. But we shouldn't overstate his role. By July, we expected our country to be *much* further along in containing this virus. But we failed, which in turn led to more distrust about re-openings than anyone had anticipated back in April /7
In case anyone's forgotten, Congress STILL HAS NOT PASSED A STIMULUS PACKAGE. In June 100 House Democrats urged for $300 billion in K-12 stimulus aid alone, and there's been nothing. https://tlaib.house.gov/sites/tlaib.house.gov/files/K-12%20Education%20Emergency%20Fund_Letter.pdf /8
meanwhile we've gotten more polling showing what parents want in terms of reopenings. While public opinion isn't everything, it wasn't available for months of this debate. Once it came out, many who long wanted faster re-openings tended to hand-waive the findings away /9
we do *know* ways to make our schools safer, and many districts are trying their hardest to figure out how to do that. but it costs money, and saying "the science" says schools are definitely safe right now is not accurate /10
Virtually all interviews with school administrators that have reopened say they're waiting with baited breaths. Here's a great piece on one in Texas. Note in this school, 38 percent of kids were back, and 62 percent opted to stay fully remote. /11 https://www.wsj.com/articles/texas-school-reopens-coronavirus-11599072008
Another piece to be aware of is the U.S's testing capacity. Earlier this month @sarahkliff + @sangerkatz reported on the great challenges of finding places to actually test children for the virus. /12 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/08/upshot/children-testing-shortfalls-virus.html
Also no mention of COVID cases rising among children, according to our best available data (which still isn't great!)
Between Aug. 20 and Sept. 3: 16% increase in child cases over 2 weeks.
Between Sept. 10 - Sept. 24, a 14% increase over 2 weeks https://services.aap.org/en/pages/2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-infections/children-and-covid-19-state-level-data-report/ /13
Between Aug. 20 and Sept. 3: 16% increase in child cases over 2 weeks.
Between Sept. 10 - Sept. 24, a 14% increase over 2 weeks https://services.aap.org/en/pages/2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-infections/children-and-covid-19-state-level-data-report/ /13
I've been highlighting for months the ways in which some media coverage has cast educators as irrational for being concerned about safety. It's pretty frustrating, especially when it comes from journalists safe and cozy in their homes. /14
I'll end this now. (Haven't even talked about "hybrid" learning!) But I'll say: everyone wants kids to go back, and for this crisis to end. But we're still in the crisis. A study out this week suggested 90% of Americans are still susceptible to virus https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32009-2/fulltext#sec1 /15
In a few weeks we may have more reliable data, that gives us more confidence on fall transmission and bringing back more children and staff safely. But ton of legitimate variables complicating safety decisions now. /end
Postscript https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1310760655578959875?s=21 https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1310760655578959875
