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Advanced rushing stats after week 3! Let's see who's playing well and who is not and see if we can see some outliers or breakout candidates
Thread includes: Miles Sanders, David Montgomery, Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, James Robinson, and Myles Gaskin@MyFantasyLeague
Before we start let's clarify 3 of the important glossary terms and meanings;
YBC/Att -- Rush yards before contact per rushing attempt (this helps to indicate how the oline is performing)
YAC/Att -- Rushing yards after contact per rush
Att/Br - Rush attempts per broken tackle
YBC/Att -- Rush yards before contact per rushing attempt (this helps to indicate how the oline is performing)
YAC/Att -- Rushing yards after contact per rush
Att/Br - Rush attempts per broken tackle
Miles Sanders
2 games.
38 att
190 yards
5.0 avg
YBC/Att- 4.2 yards 6th out of 46
YAC/Att - 0.8 yards 41 out of 46
Att/Br - 38.0 32 out of 34
2 games.
38 att
190 yards
5.0 avg
YBC/Att- 4.2 yards 6th out of 46
YAC/Att - 0.8 yards 41 out of 46
Att/Br - 38.0 32 out of 34
On first stat glance we see a 5.0 rush avg which looks great. But diving deeper we see that the Eagles oline is actually doing a great job opening up space for Sanders.
Not only is Sanders not breaking tackles but he is one of the worst when it comes to yards after contact.
Not only is Sanders not breaking tackles but he is one of the worst when it comes to yards after contact.
If we look at his 2019 advanced stats for the season we get:
YBC/Att- 2.5
YAC/Att - 2.1
Att/Br - 11.2
This tells me, I'm assuming that Sanders isn't fully healthy yet. Hold tight, the big breakout may be coming.
YBC/Att- 2.5
YAC/Att - 2.1
Att/Br - 11.2
This tells me, I'm assuming that Sanders isn't fully healthy yet. Hold tight, the big breakout may be coming.
Josh Jacobs
3 games.
68 att
252 yards
3.7 avg
YBC/Att- 2.2 yards 31st
YAC/Att - 1.5 yards 26th
Att/Br - 5.7 3rd
3 games.
68 att
252 yards
3.7 avg
YBC/Att- 2.2 yards 31st
YAC/Att - 1.5 yards 26th
Att/Br - 5.7 3rd
Not only is Jacobs getting a ton of volume (he ranks 2nd in attempts), but he's 3rd in broken tackle rate which is outstanding considering the # of rushes he's had so far. He's also middle of the pack on YAC which is still solid considering defenses are...
.... are expecting Jacobs to get the ball often.
Jacobs is no doubt a top 10 RB in the NFL right now.
Jacobs is no doubt a top 10 RB in the NFL right now.
David Montgomery
3 games.
43 att
191 yards
4.4 avg
YBC/Att- 1.9 yards 38th
YAC/Att - 2.6 yards 7th
Att/Br - 6.1 4th
3 games.
43 att
191 yards
4.4 avg
YBC/Att- 1.9 yards 38th
YAC/Att - 2.6 yards 7th
Att/Br - 6.1 4th
Honestly this is shocking to me so far. Monty's YBC is one of the worst in the league, but his YAC and broken tackle rate are both top 10 right now. Truly outstanding. For a guy that previously on tape showed poor vision and wasn't great last year...
and appeared pretty average he had had a complete turnaround. Montgomery did say he was in the best shape of his life and looks like whatever he did is working.
Now with Cohen out, an increased workload and if he can maintain his advanced stats even somewhat, he is going...
Now with Cohen out, an increased workload and if he can maintain his advanced stats even somewhat, he is going...
...to produce and be a big steal based on his preseason ADP.
Jonathan Taylor
3 games.
48 att
182 yards
3.7 avg
YBC/Att- 2.6 yards 27th
YAC/Att - 1.2 yards 28th
Att/Br - 48.0 34th
3 games.
48 att
182 yards
3.7 avg
YBC/Att- 2.6 yards 27th
YAC/Att - 1.2 yards 28th
Att/Br - 48.0 34th
So far Taylor is scoring fantasy points (RB14 in PPR), but he isn't making it look pretty. Taylor is dead last in broken tackle rate and that is concerning through 3 weeks. On the plus side hes middle of the road in YAC and I have seen him blowing up defenders and...
...pushing the pile. But his avg per attempt and broken tackle rate are indicating he's a volume based fantasy player so far.
Taylor is someone we need to monitor closely in the coming weeks.
Taylor is someone we need to monitor closely in the coming weeks.
James Robinson
3 games.
43 att
210 yards
4.8 avg
YBC/Att- 1.8 yards 39th
YAC/Att - 3.1 yards 2nd
Att/Br - 10.8 10th
3 games.
43 att
210 yards
4.8 avg
YBC/Att- 1.8 yards 39th
YAC/Att - 3.1 yards 2nd
Att/Br - 10.8 10th
James Robinson has been incredible so far. Not only is oline doing him no favors at all ranking 39th in YBC, James Robinson just doesn't care if you want to tackle him. He ranks 2nd in YAC and 10th in broken tackle rate so far. Those are elite numbers so far.
Through 3 weeks Robinson is showing that he's likely not a JAG (Just Another Guy, pun intended), but rather a player that isn't going away. I suggest investing while his stock is somewhat reasonable
Myles Gaskin
3 games.
38 att
152 yards
4.0 avg
YBC/Att- 1.3 yards 43rd
YAC/Att - 2.7 yards 6th
Att/Br - 12.7 13th
3 games.
38 att
152 yards
4.0 avg
YBC/Att- 1.3 yards 43rd
YAC/Att - 2.7 yards 6th
Att/Br - 12.7 13th
Gaskin is an interesting case as he sits at RB21 in PPR so far. On film he doesn't thrill me but his metrics are incredible so far. A solid 4.0 rush average behind a terrible YBC oline, but Gaskin ranks pretty highly in YAC and broken tackle rate.
I think most including myself figured this would be a Howard/Breida backfield but Chan Gailey runs his offense differently from what others expect. Id look to acquire Gaskin on the cheap if possible and you may have yourself a weekly RB2 at flex prices.
Hopefully many enjoyed this thread and I'll try and put one out after each week with some different names to go over and evaluate!
Thanks for reading!
Thanks for reading!
Another interesting stat to further support James Robinson is that he is also 2nd in the entire NFL including WR's and TE's in Yards After the Catch per reception with 13.3 yards. Pretty incredible for a guy with 10 receptions so far as well.
