It bothers me that if you assume

1 Biden& #39;s chance of winning is .75
2 Biden& #39;s chance of winning the election conditional on winning Florida is 1
3 Biden& #39;s chance of winning Florida is .5

It follows that

Trump& #39;s chance of winning conditional on winning Florida is .5

It& #39;s like Biden has to win 1 out of 2 coin flips where the 1st is Florida and the 2nd is everything else

If he loses Florida, that erases his advantage elsewhere

Of course outcomes in different states aren& #39;t statistically independent but the argument in the first tweet is valid

Also it may be that the assumptions are false, but I think they are plausible.

I should add, the effect of Trump winning Florida on your beliefs is twofold:

1 You should update so as to believe that it is more likely that Trump will win other states.

2 Trump is now ahead by 29 electoral votes, which Biden must make up.