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New thread. I'm quoted here on the #Karabakh fighting. (There is a lot more nuance if you watch the whole interview) I’m aware that people like to quote me selectively so important for me to state a few core beliefs I have about this conflict https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/9/28/why-you-should-care-about-conflict-between-armenia-and-azerbaijan
1 No side has a monopoly of justice. Both sides have historical claims to Karabakh. It was the site of a medieval Armenian kingdom in the 12th century and an Azerbaijani (Persian Turkic Shia) khanate in the 18th c. Both peoples have lived together here, mostly peacefully.
2 There is a lot of propaganda out there. Both sides cannot be right, but both cannot be wrong – and frequently are in their assertions. Treat all official statements from both sides with a big pinch of salt!
3 Az., the losing side in the conflict of the 1990s, is the side with an incentive to use military aggression to reshape the facts on the ground. This is almost certainly what they did on Sunday. And yes they probably picked a moment when they thought the world was distracted.
4 But this does not mean the Arm. side is peace-loving. For a long time they have not agreed to substantial talks about the conflict. The way they call territory they occupied outside NK in the 1990s “liberated” makes them “passive aggressive,” a co-sponsor of violence.
5 The mountainous terrain here, the increasingly deadly heavy weaponry, close proximity of villages and towns to the Line of Contact means that it is very hard for one side to “win” any military contest. More fighting will just lead to mass bloodshed, misery and hatred.
6 NK differs crucially from other post-Soviet conflicts (Abkhazia, S Ossetia, Transdniestria, Ukraine) in that Russia has stakes on both sides and is much more at arm’s length. The Russians do not pull the strings here, even if they wanted to. Read here https://www.ceps.eu/ceps-publications/beyond-frozen-conflict/
7 Ultimately, it will be up to Armenians and Azerbaijanis to make the strategic decision to deal with one another and follow a plan that involves concessions and leads to peace. That will happen one day—but bloodshed delays that day by creating more mutual insecurity and fear.
8 A lot of time has been wasted. The last time serious talks were 20 years ago. Instead there has been sporadic contact and what one mediator calls “Kabuki negotiations.” The last two special envoys who actually talked were Jirair Libaridian and Vafa Guluzade in the 1990s
9 Internationals can help shape a peace deal, offer financial assistance and (crucially) peacekeepers. But only Armenians and Azerbaijanis can solve this. Sorry if I am blunt—I do care! More tomorrow #NKpeace ENDS
