#France @EmmanuelMacron's initiative for #Lebanon:
1. Macron failed because he was unclear in his approach and plan.
2. Macron wanted to attribute his failure to the Lebanese and blame them rather than blaming his lack of clarity and inconsistency even if he had good intention
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3. President @EmmanuelMacron Macron's 1st private (one-to-one) meeting with #Hezbollah lasted 8 minutes. Hezbollah promised to forward a non provocative & a professional technocrat candidate but never gave up on his right to nominate his minister. Macron acknowledged & accepted.+

4. In his second meeting, #Hezbollah acknowledged most of #France's points discussed and refused an early election and @EmmanuelMacron accepted the rejection. Other politicians (Kataeb and Lebanese Forces) spoke about Hezbollah's disarmament. Macron rejected their argument +

5. The initial French plan was a political gov. The 2d plan was different, indicating the confusion & the inconsistency of ideas because the Lebanese confessional structure is complicated and no longer viable. Macron wanted to work with it rather inviting #Lebanon to change it+

In every country around the world, the majority of MPs rule and nominate the cabinet. In #Lebanon there is a consensus but in no way the minority will be allowed to dictate over the rest of MPs and chose the gov.
@EmmanuelMacron gave this right to @saadhariri: a very wrong move+

6. The minority MPs (Sunni has 27 MPs of which @saadhariri speaks in the name of 17 today) aimed to dominate, w/ the blessing f @EmmanuelMacron the cabinet: wrong move by #France.
7. Macron enjoys little support in #Lebanon but the #US is more powerful & #SaudiArabia has leverage

8. Macron is riding the #US-Saudi horse, joining his voice to criticise #Hezbollah & blame it 4 the failure of the formation of the cabinet. This will significantly decrease his chances 2form a cabinet 4-6 weeks. France took upon itself a task w/o been prepared to its complexity

9. #Lebanon MP majorities will not give up on their right to nominate their ministers in 4-6 weeks or in 40 weeks unless there will be no confessional rule in choosing a Prime Minister (Sunni, Shia or Christian). Macron can only start imposing French sanctions if he wants+

10. Further sanctions will not help and won't give the desired results. It is time for #Lebanon politicians to acknowledge that the confessional system is no longer valid and it is the moment to change the constitution.

11. If the system won't change, the majority may rule.

12. #France and the #US have a conflict of interest and objectives. This is why the French initiative won't work. The only system that can work is the agreement of the Lebanese and that can't happen with the current politicians. Bottom line: the crisis will continue.