It's a complicated story. The key thing is that Trump goes hunting where the ducks are. Before Trump, Steve Bannon and others recognized immigration as an extremely hot, though often avoided, issue that viscerally activated much of the GOP base. https://twitter.com/VoxTribuni/status/1310442132574842884

It's possible that if Trump had launched his campaign a day earlier or a day later than June 16, 2015, he might have focused on something else. But he defined himself with that "not sending their best" line.

In 2015 and half of 2016, Trump absolutely engaged in outreach to the Alt-Right writ large, as did outlets like Breitbart by mid-2016. This allowed Trump to do an end run around the establishment—and, ironically, his future base, the Religious Right, which then backed Cruz.

In the primaries, Trump was gaining huge support outside the South among Red State voters who lived in Blue states. This was the basis of his unlikely—and likely unplanned!—"rustbelt" electoral-college strategy in the general: Trump won over former Obama voters and non-voters.

By 2017, Trump was consolidating support among mainline Republicans, as can be seen in his appointments and his early policy "wins," like incoherently ending Obamacare, cutting taxes, and lobbing bombs into the Middle East.

Today, the GOP establishment seems to be warily aligned with Trump—they're milking the cow for all its got. And Trump has stabilized things by dumping the Alt-Right and activating the Religious Right, which has been a long-time GOP constituency.

At this point, Trump as "the immigration president" is like a distant memory. He's the president of the MAGA Cult, which has a great deal of crossover with the Tea Party and Religious Right.

I hear a lot of people say things like, "Trump will lose because he never did anything for his base!" The reality is, Trump's current base doesn't include the people saying this. The Religious Right and MAGA Cult very much feel like he's done a lot for them. They adore him.

Flipping your bases of support is not a great way to *accumulate* support. Again, Trump goes hunting where the ducks are—but this seems to entail turning off his former supporters. Trump might lose the Midwest. Indeed, it's looking that way.

My fantasy of Trump's first term involves him continuing to focus on immigration and dumping the GOP establishment and Paul Ryan's House—and aligning with "Chuck and Nancy" on healthcare, immigration reform, and infrastructure. But that bold strategy is the stuff of fancy.