I agree with Jake on his observations but not the symptom of the problem.

My totally crackpot take on the current lack of progress is that there is no grand challenge or existential conflict that is facing us right now (ex covid). https://twitter.com/justjake/status/1310368050999304192

If I came to you and said Choice A is the soviets win and Choice B is landing on the moon - you’re gonna go all out for B!

Call it the “Conflict Theory of Progress” but it seems great things often happens under dire conditions.

So my bull case is 2020 is only the beginning of a series of very hard years marked by escalation with China, massive internal divisions, currency crises, shift to digital, and other dislocating and disquieting events which ULTIMATELY restart the innovation engine.