If I have a hot take on the tax returns, it's this:

No, it's not likely to move the needle on the ~2/5ths of the country that supports Trump. But the returns are unique because they're something Trump has desperately tried to *hide.*

Much of his appeal to his core supporters lies in the fact that his solipsism has led him to brazenly admit to all sorts of corruption and criminality. He is shameless, and that inspires his followers.

He breaks the usual scandal script of denial/dissembling->Revelation->Humiliating apology and backpedalling. It signals to his supporters and some others that what he's doing isn't *actually* wrong, because he doesn't *act* like it's wrong.

But the tax returns clearly are something he's ashamed of. Here, he's followed something closer to a more traditional scandal script. He has acted like the tax returns are shameful and strove to hide them.

Will it matter enough to cause him to lose support? I doubt it. But that's also not the key question. If the truth ceases to matter, he's won. If we normalise his grift, he's won. Thus, revelation and outrage continue to be important, if only for the sake of our souls.

But if this *does* go differently, it'll be because we hit on the one thing he acts ashamed of.