The 2nd wave, or lets talk turkey..

What would count as a 2nd wave for covid.

Well its not just one set of data you need to use 3 or 4 data sets.

Positive Cases
Admissions
Deaths
Extrapolation cases.

And here it is

So based on all the data sets we now have all sources from the UK Government covid pages we can now see the true scale of wave 1 covid.

But more importantly we now have a yardstick to watch for wave 2.

So what are we looking for?

Fast daily rise in cases, moving up at least 2-3000 per day.

Admissions to hospital climbing by 2-300 per day.

Mortality rate climbing from 0.3% to 0.8% or more.

Are we seeing any of these indicators reach this level of growth.

NO

So what would count as a second wave?

Cases of 50-60,000 per day.

Admissions of 2000 plus per day.

Deaths of 3-400 at peak.

None of these indicators are flashing red.

Please note this tweet will not be popular with the government.

The reason for lockdown 1 was to protect the NHS. This made sense and we all wentnalong with it in a communitybspirit way. The greater good was clear.

You cannot control covid-19, its here to stay, the question is why a 2nd lockdown or democratic restrictions now?

The data i see is a natural increase curve based on the easing of 1st lockdown, its a natural up tick as virus would again spread.

All we can do is control the spread, ensure nhs is not overwhelmed & carry on as normal as best we can.

Thinking a virus can be beaten is deluded.

It's up to you, retweet and #followthefacts

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