The thing to note here is that China has a lot more pull on America and its other trading partners than the other way around, when theoretically, an interdependent relationship should be a two way street. The reasons for this are kind of complicated (cont.) https://twitter.com/DistantValhalla/status/1310202005898629122

Like, have you ever noticed how China relies on American capital as much as America does on Chinese production, yet its China that seems to exert its will, preferences, and demands on the rest of the world? Certainly that was never the plan.

When people like Nixon and Clinton expanded relations with Communist China, their intent was that by making China dependent on the west, they could export democracy. Instead, we're importing Chinese authoritarianism and censorship.

Why is this? A co-dependent relationship should facilitate negotiations, not impose the will of one on the other. The reasons are both political and cultural, but the crux is this - China can take a LOT more punishment than America can.

China is willing to make more sacrifices, to endure mutually destructive arrangements, more than its partners. This gives them a lot more bargaining power.

My political science professor once described war as a form of Negotiation. It's two countries, doing things that are mutually destructive, incurring costs on each other and themselves, until one of them decides its not worth it anymore.

China does the same, on an economic and social scale. They can deny trade, refuse cooperation, even if it hurts them - because they're sure that they can last longer in the game of chicken than the west can.

A big part of this is their Authoritarian government vs western democracies. When a trade war begins - and the population begins to suffer, Americans will blame their representatives and look to elect new ones, while the Chinese autocracy has no such fears.

On one hand, having a government accountable to the citizenship is a great thing. On the other hand, the fluid nature of citizen-officials means that they'll never have such a firm position of authority as the CCP.

On the other hand, its also a cultural thing. Chinese people, by and large, are a lot better at delayed gratification than people in the west are, in my experience. Thats the nature of a culture that spent the last century or so in squalor and famine.

The population doesn't protest and get annoyed at downturns the same way people in the west are, and the culture encourages this idea of enduring hardship to obtain later rewards - there's a famous proverb that goes "Bitterness precedes the sweet."

Meanwhile, Americans are going to bitch at every perceived slight and every problem in their lives and burn down cities when they're mad. The long-term consequences of geopolitics are far beyond most citizens.

China is willing to starve its people, sacrifice its trade, resources, and like a game of poker, that bluff - and every other country's unwillingness to meet it - is why they have so much influence over everyone else's decisions.