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This seems like a good opportunity to talk about China's “debt-trap diplomacy” again, and highlight some of the good work we’ve been doing on Chinese debt over at @SaisCari https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8776277/TOM-TUGENDHAT-MP-Beijing-wants-loans-Soviet-Union-failed-achieve-tanks.html
If you haven’t read opinion pieces like this before, the claim is that China deliberately seeks to entrap other countries in debt so as to secure some kind of strategic advantage down the line
It fits into broader myths on China in the Global South but this one has become quite tenacious in the context of Covid. Fear makes for appealing news
Fortunately, the truth is actually far more mundane. At SAIS-CARI we have tracked literally 1000s of loans since 2000 and have yet to find an instance where Chinese policy banks deliberately ensnared another country in debt to seize assets http://www.sais-cari.org/data
The Sri Lankan port of Hambantota is the overly-flogged dead-horse of this “debt trap diplomacy” idea. It’s the only example where a strategic takeover seems to have occurred (rather than *could* occur). It turned out a powerful Chinese company was just guilty of capitalism
As documented by @UmeshMoramudali (among many many others), there was no change in ownership, no cancelation of debt, and no evidence of a debt trap around the Hambantota Port https://thediplomat.com/2020/01/the-hambantota-port-deal-myths-and-realities/
In reality, Chinese lending is often a minority share of many countries’ overseas debt. And of those countries actually in debt-distress or at risk of it, China’s lending makes up an even smaller proportion. Here’s a good piece on the numbers https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5652847de4b033f56d2bdc29/t/5c467754898583fc9a99131f/1548121941093/Briefing+Paper+1+-+August+2018+-+Final.pdf
It’s also worth bearing in mind that China’s presence in the developing world is still regarded as very positive by survey takers (check out work by @afrobarometer). Chinese lending often fits into popular development needs
As argued by my friend and mentor @D_Brautigam, “rather than being unenlightened, ignorant and in need of paternal protection from Western countries, [developing countries] may see the same scenes differently than we do here in the West.” https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23792949.2019.1689828?needAccess=true
If the UK is serious about making Global Britain at least as appealing as China is in the modern Global South, then we’d better understand that fact
However, this isn’t to say there aren’t causes for concern. For instance, China-Africa military relations have increased rapidly over the past few years and if you want to learn more about this, please tune into any of our panel sessions this week http://www.sais-cari.org/
These collaborations have serious implications for African citizens and UK security interests so it’s important to work from the evidence up, rather than trying to cobble together responses to an assumption
