/1 Back from vacay, here's what I think is the highest-prob $spx chart.

But note it cannot go above 3323 or I'll need to do a full relabeling *and* there are multiple interps. for 21Sep through 25Sep.

ht @MotherCabriniNY @VlanciPictures @DereckCoatney @andykatz19 @Celiwaves
/2 If this $spx charting is correct, we should see $es_f show signs of serious weakness today/tomorrow... this follows because the "third of third" is usually the most dramatic and these labels suggest it happens early this week -- or time for a re-think.

#dyor #couldbewrong
/3 One reason I favor the $spx charting in /1 is because the dollar has strengthened 2.2% (using $uup as proxy for $dxy) since 18Sep, implying S&P should be at ~3240 all else being equal -- and it is above that level
/4 And one reason $spx might go higher from here is $usdjpy. This 👇 chart shows a completed ABC-X-ABC-Y-ABC correction (drawn in red and purple) from the 5-up impulse (drawn in black). *BUT* I am not confident the final ABC is complete...
/5 If $usdjpy has one more leg down, the carry trade could drive US equities higher before The Big 📉. Plus, ROC / RSI / MACD at daily scale in $usdjpy doesn't show "oversold" like it did last Feb.

#dyor #couldbewrong
/6 I'll just add a little $es_f rh... looks like it's trying to make good (so far) on what I have in /1 of this thread
You can follow @dapstats.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: