Every infection is terrible. But the ripple effect is huge, and policy makers need to think beyond just the absolute number of cases.

1/ https://twitter.com/imgrund/status/1310052771241041921

Assuming a 1% positivity rate is maintained, it means 99 children are tested and found negative for every child with COVID-19. Each case thus implies 100 more people at overcrowded testing sites.

2/

None of those 100 children can attend school or daycare until they have been tested and get a negative test result. It can be days before a parent can get that child tested, and only a minority of test results are available in 24 hours.

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This means that 100 children AND THEIR SIBLINGS can be out of school for days, even more than a week, for every child who has COVID-19. And it means 100 families will see lost work-time and/or productivity during this period.

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It means a huge emotional (and possibly financial) stress on 100 families which may have long-term consequences well after this pandemic ends.

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The potential consequences for the child (and that child’s family) who has COVID-19 are horrific, and I do not want to underemphasize that. But when we look at case numbers, we need to realize that this is affecting orders of magnitude more people.

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This means that efforts to reduce the potential exposure to children (limiting class sizes, improving ventilation, etc) are important not just because they reduce case numbers but also benefit a huge number of others. Each case avoided pays a massive dividend to all of us.

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