There’s narrative that US wants to kill Nord Stream 2 b/c it wants to sell more LNG to Germany/Europe. Let’s see some data. In 2019 Russia’s share in total EU gas imports was 46%. But that’s pipeline gas and LNG combined. LNG accounted for more than 10% of Russian deliveries. /1

For 2019 Qatar supplied 28% of EU LNG imports, Russia 20% (21 bcm), US 16%. The EU market saw “increasing competition between US and Russia in LNG supply”, according to European Commission gas market report. In Q1 2020 US became top LNG supplier to EU followed by Russia. /2

EU Commission noted Russia was smart enough to increasingly complement pipeline business with LNG supply. Actually, it’s emerging competition between NOVATEK and Gazprom because Europe mainly gets LNG from NOVATEK’s Yamal LNG plant. /3

Russia will actively grow LNG exports as NOVATEK is adding production capacity in coming years. So I assume Europe is going to buy more LNG not because of geopolitics, but depending on pricing. If Russian LNG is more competitive than US’, then Europe will buy more Russian LNG. /4

Whether Nord Stream 2 is commissioned or not (with take-or-pay clauses becoming less relevant under Gazprom future contracts, I assume), Germany/Europe’s LNG purchases will be conditional purely upon pricing. It may be Russian LNG, not necessarily American, even if NS2 fails. /5

(I won’t individually tag respected experts whom I have plenty in my Twitter feed, but would welcome any comments on the above-mentioned ideas).