Not good. Azerbaijan launched “an offensive” against Nagorno-Karabakh on Sunday morning, Armenia has claimed. There have been reports of Azeri aircraft being shot down. Baku says it is taking “retaliatory measures” in the disputed region. https://www.rt.com/russia/501823-azerbaijan-armenia-karabakh-hostilities/

Would suggest everyone enjoy this calm period before America's "Russia-experts" wake up and start blaming Putin/Moscow & spreading wild conspiracy theories. This is a conflict between two countries that absolutely hate each other & has been brewing since the 1920s.

In fact, it’s been Moscow maintaining good relations with both which has stopped them killing each other for the last 30 years. The roots of the problem lie in Stalin's 1923 decision to place the majority Armenian region in the Azerbaijan SSR. Which was done to placate Turkey.

If any country is meddling in this dispute, it's Turkey. Erdogan's spokesman has already tweeted Ankara's view. While Moscow is closer to Yerevan than Baku, its main goal, for 3 decades now, has been to stop them fighting, fearing a destabilised region. https://twitter.com/ikalin1/status/1310129123638022145?s=20

This, btw, is actually what Putin meant when he said the breakup of the USSR was "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe" of the 20th century. A statement twisted & misrepresented in the West. He was referring to all the ethnic disputes & local conflicts it unleashed.

And just to bring it home that this is a real war, in which innocent people will die, here is footage of tanks heading through the Nagorno-Karabakh capital of Stepanakert towards the frontline with Azerbaijan.

Good thread this, from @sfrantzman, an Israeli analyst who knows his stuff. https://twitter.com/sfrantzman/status/1310204448069890050?s=20