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Thread on todays local elections in Romania:
Today mayors, local/regional councils and county presidents are elected. Elections are simple, just one round and person with most votes wins, no need for a majority
Today mayors, local/regional councils and county presidents are elected. Elections are simple, just one round and person with most votes wins, no need for a majority
I said this in previous tweets but i& #39;ll repeat it here: Todays vote doesn& #39;t really mean much in the bigger picture, regardless of the results administration wise little will change for the people.
But the elections are important for the parties.
But the elections are important for the parties.
A strong presence at the local level is key to any party that looks to win national ones. Control of regional provinces, and the resource that gives access to, helps parties to mobilize their voters in both legal and less legal ways
So instead of writing on what this vote means to the people, it does little outside a few cities, i& #39;ll write in this thread below on what each parties strategy is and what hopes/fears they have for the elections
First lets mention why elections are in just 1 round.
The main reason is PSD and the Hungarian party, who have a parliamentary majority and where adamant on just 1 round of voting.
Officially they argued 2 rounds is a waste of money but reality is that the system benefits them
The main reason is PSD and the Hungarian party, who have a parliamentary majority and where adamant on just 1 round of voting.
Officially they argued 2 rounds is a waste of money but reality is that the system benefits them
Both believe they have a unified and loyal core of voters that they can easily mobilize. While the other parties are divided and have a rather fickle electorate.
The idea is simple, in 1 round they can win mayorships even with just 30% of the vote in many circumstances
The idea is simple, in 1 round they can win mayorships even with just 30% of the vote in many circumstances
So lets get into the individual parties now:
For PSD this is the first of 2 nightmare elections this winter, they are projected to lose big.
Its insistence on 1 round of votes though, shows that their main objective is to hold as much ground as possible at these elections
For PSD this is the first of 2 nightmare elections this winter, they are projected to lose big.
Its insistence on 1 round of votes though, shows that their main objective is to hold as much ground as possible at these elections
More or less they have accepted the defeat at the coming parliamentary elections. 4 years of parliamentary opposition won& #39;t be even that bad but PSD is a deeply & #39;local& #39; party, to lose access to the ability to & #39;help& #39; their voters would be a disaster.
The party could even vanish
The party could even vanish
So they are purely on the defensive here. I expect that outside of Hunedoara they& #39;ll lose most of Transylvania while also suffering loses in Moldova.
But I still believe they& #39;ll hold a firm grasp on their strongholds in the south
But I still believe they& #39;ll hold a firm grasp on their strongholds in the south
What they really need though is a big PR victory. They can& #39;t claim victory with just Braila or Olt, where they are expected to win.
Only place they can achieve this is in Bucharest itself. Where a victory of the incumbent PSD mayor would lessen the narrative of a PSD route
Only place they can achieve this is in Bucharest itself. Where a victory of the incumbent PSD mayor would lessen the narrative of a PSD route
For Firea herself though, this could be a huge chance. A victory here would propel her within the party even to its leadership, a position she clearly desires. The current leader is as good as gone, he won& #39;t survive December.
No exageration either, in my view, she is the last mildly competent PSD leader that has some chance to save the party.
All others are just faceless backroom politicians or Dragnea 2.0 local barons
All others are just faceless backroom politicians or Dragnea 2.0 local barons
For PNL this is the first of 2 great elections this winter. They will govern us after December.
This election for them is simply an opportunity to & #39;grab& #39; as many regional counties as possible to use them to further boost themselves at the parliamentary vote
This election for them is simply an opportunity to & #39;grab& #39; as many regional counties as possible to use them to further boost themselves at the parliamentary vote
PNL has hilariously enough not tried to much to win new voters. They rely on their popular incumbents, especially in Transylvania, and on simply co-opting PSD incumbents.
Most famous is the former PSD mayor of Iasi. But they brought in thousands all over the country
Most famous is the former PSD mayor of Iasi. But they brought in thousands all over the country
The move is highly unpopular and they know it. Both president and PM where repeteadly asked on this and neither gave a decent answer, because they know there is none.
On another point the party has also decided to abandon Bucharest and not field a candidate, backing an independent there.
A win win sit for them. If PSD loses they helped, if PSD wins it wasn& #39;t their candidate
A win win sit for them. If PSD loses they helped, if PSD wins it wasn& #39;t their candidate
The above also shows though that they aren& #39;t really that worried of todays results. The more they win the better sure but local politics in Romania are very non-confrontational, once they are safe in government the PSD mayors will become very pliant
Local elections are hard for a party with weak regional presence, especially so in just 1 round of voting.
These elections will be hard for USR-PLUS, whose entire hopes are basically just in Bucharest itself
These elections will be hard for USR-PLUS, whose entire hopes are basically just in Bucharest itself
The parties very weak regional branches, PNL splitting their vote and 1 round elections means that they stand little hopes to gain any considerable number of seats.
But a victory in the capital would be exactly all the PR they& #39;d need to present the result as all in all a win
But a victory in the capital would be exactly all the PR they& #39;d need to present the result as all in all a win
While independent on paper, Nicusor Dan is the parties founder and intrinsically associated with it.
A victory for him would be very easily sold as a victory for USR-PLUS.
Especially as one of their most popular politicians is his Vice-mayor
A victory for him would be very easily sold as a victory for USR-PLUS.
Especially as one of their most popular politicians is his Vice-mayor
Nicusor Dan& #39;s biggest problems is PMPs candidate for mayor, former president Traian Basescu.
Why is he running even if he can& #39;t win?
1. he is angry he was snubbed and brought into the unified opposition
2. he needs all the publicity he can get
Why is he running even if he can& #39;t win?
1. he is angry he was snubbed and brought into the unified opposition
2. he needs all the publicity he can get
Basescu can easily split the anti-PSD vote. He wants to show PNL/USR-PLUS that him and his party are still necesarry to beat PSD after they both decided not to bother with negotiating with him.
But PMP is doing bad in the polls for parliamentary elec. so this campaign is also so he can get more publicity, more TV interviews...etc in hopes to give PMP a boost to pass 5%
Which means a lot, considering he might very likely be needed to form a coalition gov this December
Which means a lot, considering he might very likely be needed to form a coalition gov this December
As for the rest of the country, Basescu doesn& #39;t care at all. His party is just a personal vehicle for himself alone.
Small parties are basically hopeless with this electoral system.
Hence why Ponta hasn& #39;t campaigned much at all. He managed to steal a few PSD mayors but nothing more. The quicker these elections pass the better for him.
Hence why Ponta hasn& #39;t campaigned much at all. He managed to steal a few PSD mayors but nothing more. The quicker these elections pass the better for him.
The worse PSD does though the better his own future prospects. A weak result here may convince many local barons that the PSD brand is to tarnished and motivate them to switch to PRO.
Funny enough Ponta can win more seats in the months following todays vote
Funny enough Ponta can win more seats in the months following todays vote
The last party worth mentioning is UDMR, the Hungarian minority party.
One of the reasons why the elections are in just 1 round, the reason is simple: they believe they can safely unite the HU vote and win many seats where Romanians are majority
One of the reasons why the elections are in just 1 round, the reason is simple: they believe they can safely unite the HU vote and win many seats where Romanians are majority
An interesting thing though to keep an eye on, is that at the local elections is the only place where they have some challenge from within the Hungarian community. So as always these elections are also a test for themselves, to see how firm their hold on their electorate is
In the bigger cities they might have some opposition but i expect they still are able to mobilize their voters
UDMRs problem isn& #39;t loosing voters to other parties but simply struggling to motivate the younger Hungarians to show up at all
UDMRs problem isn& #39;t loosing voters to other parties but simply struggling to motivate the younger Hungarians to show up at all
OK, think a ranted on waay to long, so in a quick end i& #39;ll leave this great map by @Arnold_Platon showing the results in the previous 2 elections and who governs some of the important cities right now https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1310112285080399873">https://twitter.com/EuropeEle...
