1) How much were the polls skewed toward Democrats in 2016? This compares final Real Clear Politics averages against results for 11 Battleground States of NC, FL, AZ, MN, WI, MI, PA, IA, OH, NH, NV.

Avg skew to Dems: 3.1%

8 skewed to Dem
2 skewed Repub (AZ, NV)
1 exact (NH)
2) For the six states of IA, OH, MN, WI, MI, PA the skew to the Dem in 2016 was 5.7%.

All 6 states skewed to the Dem.

With Rust Belt 4 of MN, WI, MI, PA, the average skew to the Dem was 5.5% (includes Trafalgar having polls in PA and MI showing Trump leading).
3) For the 7 states most crucial in 2020 (NC, FL, AZ, MN, MI, WI, PA), the skew to the Dem in 2016 was 3.6%

The below tweets are data from the 11 states that formed the results for these first 3 tweets.

Source: Real Clear Politics. Skew figures are mine.
4) North Carolina:
RCP Average: Trump 0.8%
Actual Result: Trump 3.6%
Skewed Dem: 2.8%

RCP Average Trump 0.4%
Actual Result Trump 1.2%
Skewed Dem: 0.8%

RCP Average Trump 4.0%
Actual Result: Trump 3.5%
Skewed Repub: 0.5%
5) Minnesota:
RCP Average: Clinton 9.5% (2 polls)
Actual Result: Clinton 1.5%
Skewed Dem: 8.0%

RCP Average: Clinton 6.5%
Actual Result: Trump 0.7%
Skewed Dem: 7.2%

RCP Average: Clinton 3.6%
Actual Result: Trump 0.3%
Skewed Dem: 3.9%
6) Pennsylvania:
RCP Average: Clinton 2.1%
Actual Result: Trump 0.7%
Skewed Dem: 2.8%

RCP Average: Trump 3.0%
Actual Result: Trump 9.5%
Skewed Dem: 6.5%

RCP Average: Trump 2.2%
Actual Result: Trump 8.1%
Skewed Dem: 5.9%
7) New Hampshire:
RCP Average: Clinton 0.3%
Actual Result: Clinton 0.3%
Skew: 0%

RCP Average: Trump 0.8%
Actual Result: Clinton 2.4%
Skewed Repub: 3.2%
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