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Its been nearly 3 weeks since Labor Day
We were all worried about surge after holiday
Has it happened?
Actually, yes
Data here pretty clear
First, here’s a graph of the number of new daily cases (y-axis) over past month
7-day moving averages
What does this mean?
Thread
We were all worried about surge after holiday
Has it happened?
Actually, yes
Data here pretty clear
First, here’s a graph of the number of new daily cases (y-axis) over past month
7-day moving averages
What does this mean?
Thread
Cases slowly declining as we entered September
Labor Day weekend 9/5-7
If holiday set off new infections...you’d expect to see cases rising 5 to 7 days later (around 9/12)
That’s exactly what we see in graph
So 2 weeks ago, we were at 34K/day
Today, at 44K/day
Up 30%
2/7
Labor Day weekend 9/5-7
If holiday set off new infections...you’d expect to see cases rising 5 to 7 days later (around 9/12)
That’s exactly what we see in graph
So 2 weeks ago, we were at 34K/day
Today, at 44K/day
Up 30%
2/7
39 states have more cases today than just 2 weeks ago
31 states have higher % of tests returning positive
And 16 states have % test positive > 10%
That’s not great. Those 16 states are missing a lot of infections
But patterns vary across states. So let’s dive in
3/7
31 states have higher % of tests returning positive
And 16 states have % test positive > 10%
That’s not great. Those 16 states are missing a lot of infections
But patterns vary across states. So let’s dive in
3/7
Lets start with 15 states with highest per capita new cases
ND #1 at 52 new cases /100K/d)
Others include SD, WI, UT, OK, IA, AR, MO, etc
But its not just small states
In fact, about 25% of America lives in these 15 states
How are things going here?
Not great
4/8
ND #1 at 52 new cases /100K/d)
Others include SD, WI, UT, OK, IA, AR, MO, etc
But its not just small states
In fact, about 25% of America lives in these 15 states
How are things going here?
Not great
4/8
Across these 15 states:
1. New infections are up 67% in last two weeks. That a lot.
2. Their collective % of test positives is 11.6%
3. Their hospitalizations are starting to creep up
But there’s another problem – rest of the country is not doing so hot either
5/7
1. New infections are up 67% in last two weeks. That a lot.
2. Their collective % of test positives is 11.6%
3. Their hospitalizations are starting to creep up
But there’s another problem – rest of the country is not doing so hot either
5/7
Across other 35 states:
Cases up about 11%
% of tests positive, hospitalizations flat
So, almost no one getting better but many getting worse
And, of course
Some states further easing restrictions (FL, IN, even NY)
Colleges, many businesses back, some seeing outbreaks
6/8
Cases up about 11%
% of tests positive, hospitalizations flat
So, almost no one getting better but many getting worse
And, of course
Some states further easing restrictions (FL, IN, even NY)
Colleges, many businesses back, some seeing outbreaks
6/8
And with colder weather, outdoor activity, which is so much safer, will get harder
This is why @IHME_UW and others predicting a bad fall/winter
But I'm a bit more optimistic
We can avoid the @IHME_UW scenario of 400K dead by January
What makes me more optimistic?
7/9
This is why @IHME_UW and others predicting a bad fall/winter
But I'm a bit more optimistic
We can avoid the @IHME_UW scenario of 400K dead by January
What makes me more optimistic?
7/9
A bunch of things.
More testing finally coming (pretty sure)
Some policymakers are being data driven, limiting indoor gatherings
And of course, as infections rise, folks will pull back on their own
Plus -- therapies keep getting better. This allows us lower deaths
8/9
More testing finally coming (pretty sure)
Some policymakers are being data driven, limiting indoor gatherings
And of course, as infections rise, folks will pull back on their own
Plus -- therapies keep getting better. This allows us lower deaths
8/9
Bottom line
We have a long way to go in this pandemic
Must focus on keeping infections, hospitalizations, and deaths low
Not in a good spot but we can control this
We can get through next 7-9 months until we hopefully have safe, effective vaccines widely available
9/10
We have a long way to go in this pandemic
Must focus on keeping infections, hospitalizations, and deaths low
Not in a good spot but we can control this
We can get through next 7-9 months until we hopefully have safe, effective vaccines widely available
9/10
Here's our charge
Avoid indoors when possible (push leaders to limit dining, bars)
When indoors are super important (schools), improve ventilation: open windows, air exchange. And wear a mask!
And democratize testing for everyone, not just well-connected.
We can do this
Fin
Avoid indoors when possible (push leaders to limit dining, bars)
When indoors are super important (schools), improve ventilation: open windows, air exchange. And wear a mask!
And democratize testing for everyone, not just well-connected.
We can do this
Fin
