i feel like a lot of people, when they're writing out a parade of horribles, don't really take into account how their parade of horribles conflicts with itself

(1) most events which influence present politics are not known ahead of time. is this how you would have predicted 2020 would be going in 2015? 2017? 2019?

(2) when people think about the future, they typically do a linear projection of Right Now. this is only the modal outcome.

(3) when laying out multiple parallel predicted events, people do not think about how those events interact with each other. especially public opinion!

(4) people do not include limited windows of opportunity in their predictions unless those limited windows are obvious.

so, for instance, people predict both waves of right-wing terror and permanent dominance of american politics by conservatives. these parallel predictions do not seem to register that right-wing terror is not popular, and that the conservative structural advantage is not large.

it may become large if they get to rig more state governments, but that does not seem easy.

all it takes is for the republicans to end up on the wrong side of a persistently 60/40 issue once, or be responsible for 9/11 2, for this entire thing to crumble.