Read on Twitter
My bull case for #bitcoin 
thread.
This will be a summary of some of the more interesting reasons why I'm bullish mid to long term.
TLDR at tweet 25.
$BTC
1/
thread.This will be a summary of some of the more interesting reasons why I'm bullish mid to long term.
TLDR at tweet 25.
$BTC
1/
I'm mainly a spot swing trader.
My swing trades are always based on only 2 simple factors:
1) is the market over-leveraged?
2) what is sentiment like?
Let's take a look.
2/
My swing trades are always based on only 2 simple factors:
1) is the market over-leveraged?
2) what is sentiment like?
Let's take a look.
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First of all there is funding.
One of the best indicators to gauge market sentiment.
After the drop from 12k it has been consistantly negative or baseline at best.
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One of the best indicators to gauge market sentiment.
After the drop from 12k it has been consistantly negative or baseline at best.
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Secondly we have the contango index.
This shows the difference between price of SPOT exchanges & derivatives exchanges.
When SPOT has higher prices the indicator goes lower, into the green zone.
A consistent premium for SPOT exchanges is considered bullish.
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This shows the difference between price of SPOT exchanges & derivatives exchanges.
When SPOT has higher prices the indicator goes lower, into the green zone.
A consistent premium for SPOT exchanges is considered bullish.
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Next we have the fear & greed index which speaks for itself.
After the 12k resistance we dropped hard and are now consistently stuck in the fear zone.
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After the 12k resistance we dropped hard and are now consistently stuck in the fear zone.
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Here's another index that shows sentiment based on social media.
Pretty much any indicator like this that you're gonna find shows very negative sentiment.
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Pretty much any indicator like this that you're gonna find shows very negative sentiment.
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Another interesting trend is the rapid rise of the Tether market cap.
Maybe this is a reach, but there does seem to be a correlation between the demand for Tether and general bullishness of the market.
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Maybe this is a reach, but there does seem to be a correlation between the demand for Tether and general bullishness of the market.
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Talking about stablecoins, this is the SSR.
It show the ratio between BTC supply and stablecoin supply.
The lower the ratio, the more buying power the stablecoin supply has.
Currently it's extremely low (bullish).
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It show the ratio between BTC supply and stablecoin supply.
The lower the ratio, the more buying power the stablecoin supply has.
Currently it's extremely low (bullish).
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Is the market over-leveraged?
The 12k range was absolutely brutal.
We had multiple days of more than half a billion in liquidations.
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The 12k range was absolutely brutal.
We had multiple days of more than half a billion in liquidations.
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About a billion of OI got wiped out since the peak in the 12k range.
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Then there are these indicators that try to calculate the leverage ratio for each exchange.
They're all fairly low.
This one's for BitMEX as an example.
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They're all fairly low.
This one's for BitMEX as an example.
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The net MPL indicator.
This shows that the market isn't overheated anymore.
We recently had a reset.
Red zones are great buy zones.
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This shows that the market isn't overheated anymore.
We recently had a reset.
Red zones are great buy zones.
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When we look at the previous bull-run in 2017 we can see that those small resets are turning points where momentum picks up again.
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Let's take a look at some fundamentals.
Hash ribbons recently gave 2 consecutive buy signals.
These signals happen during the first recovery after miner capitulation.
More info: https://www.tradingview.com/script/kT7jIvqv-Hash-Ribbons/
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Hash ribbons recently gave 2 consecutive buy signals.
These signals happen during the first recovery after miner capitulation.
More info: https://www.tradingview.com/script/kT7jIvqv-Hash-Ribbons/
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The bitcoin production cost is currently green.
Simply put, this means that miners are potentially taking losses.
Maybe it's not very intuitive, but historically speaking these are amazing buy opportunities.
More info: https://medium.com/capriole/bitcoins-production-cost-88d889462ea7
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Simply put, this means that miners are potentially taking losses.
Maybe it's not very intuitive, but historically speaking these are amazing buy opportunities.
More info: https://medium.com/capriole/bitcoins-production-cost-88d889462ea7
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Bitcoin's energy value.
This is just another way of attempting to see what bitcoin's fundamental value is.
Price has been trading below BTC's energy value for a while now, indicating BTC is undervalued.
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This is just another way of attempting to see what bitcoin's fundamental value is.
Price has been trading below BTC's energy value for a while now, indicating BTC is undervalued.
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The Puell Multiple.
A well known indicator that looks at bitcoin market cycles based on miner revenue.
It recently gave a rare buy signal and it's still very, very low (which is good).
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A well known indicator that looks at bitcoin market cycles based on miner revenue.
It recently gave a rare buy signal and it's still very, very low (which is good).
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Speaking about miners.
This is the miners position index.
It increased during the 12k range, but recently dipped negative.
This means miners aren't selling much right now.
The lower the value the better.
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This is the miners position index.
It increased during the 12k range, but recently dipped negative.
This means miners aren't selling much right now.
The lower the value the better.
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The NVT, another fundamental indicator based on network value to transactions.
A value of -1.6 is a superb buying opportunity.
We recently dipped to -2.7 and we're still negative.
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A value of -1.6 is a superb buying opportunity.
We recently dipped to -2.7 and we're still negative.
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Exchange outflow mean.
High outflows from exchanges seem to coincide with macro bottoms.
The outflow mean has been consistently very high in recent times.
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High outflows from exchanges seem to coincide with macro bottoms.
The outflow mean has been consistently very high in recent times.
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Reverse risk.
An indicator based on confidence of long term hodlers relative to price.
Green zones are great buying opportunities for long term investing.
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An indicator based on confidence of long term hodlers relative to price.
Green zones are great buying opportunities for long term investing.
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Finally a few more technicals.
The elephant in the room:
Last month we had an M close above 11k for the first time since BTC's ATH.
And currently we're testing monthly support.
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The elephant in the room:
Last month we had an M close above 11k for the first time since BTC's ATH.
And currently we're testing monthly support.
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Bitcoin's 200 WMA heatmap shows that we're pretty fucking far from being in overvalued territory.
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The 2Y MA multiplier indicator.
Remember this one, it's one of the best indicators for long term investors.
We just recently left a rare green zone (great buying opportunity).
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Remember this one, it's one of the best indicators for long term investors.
We just recently left a rare green zone (great buying opportunity).
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Conclusion.
A combination of both fundamental and purely technical analysis seem to indicate that:
1) BTC is relatively undervalued
2) market doesn't seem to be over-leveraged
3) sentiment has never been so abysmal while BTC is floating above 10k
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A combination of both fundamental and purely technical analysis seem to indicate that:
1) BTC is relatively undervalued
2) market doesn't seem to be over-leveraged
3) sentiment has never been so abysmal while BTC is floating above 10k
25/
So when do I expect bitcoin to start moving hard?
Well... Pretty soon actually.
Historically speaking October & November are great months for bitcoin.
We're all gonna make it homies.
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Well... Pretty soon actually.
Historically speaking October & November are great months for bitcoin.
We're all gonna make it homies.
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Sources:
@tradingview
@santimentfeed
@coinalyzetool
@bybt_com
@whale_map
@cryptoquant_com
@PositiveCrypto
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@tradingview
@santimentfeed
@coinalyzetool
@bybt_com
@whale_map
@cryptoquant_com
@PositiveCrypto
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Needless to say, none of this is financial advise.
This is simply my current view of the market and it's quite bullish.
I have considered bearish arguments, but from my POV the bullish ones are stronger.
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This is simply my current view of the market and it's quite bullish.
I have considered bearish arguments, but from my POV the bullish ones are stronger.
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Trading is all about playing by the odds, which is what I'm doing here.
And if I can give a suggestion: instead of over-leveraging you could also just place layered SPOT bids and/or DCA like I do.
That way you can never get super rekt.
Good luck, cheers.
30/fin
And if I can give a suggestion: instead of over-leveraging you could also just place layered SPOT bids and/or DCA like I do.
That way you can never get super rekt.
Good luck, cheers.
30/fin
P.S.
I'm clearly looking at the macro view here, so if BTC drops a few % tomorrow, don't you fucking dare come at me and say "haha rekt it went down".
Now go forth my bula army.
General out.
I'm clearly looking at the macro view here, so if BTC drops a few % tomorrow, don't you fucking dare come at me and say "haha rekt it went down".
Now go forth my bula army.
General out.
