With Labour ahead in the polls, a note about them - and what to expect.

Over the next two weeks, the Tories should briefly go back ahead: because they'll probably get a slight conference bounce, and because of Sunak's announcement re: jobs.

That bounce won't last long.

The Labour lead should then begin to steadily grow. Because a second wave isn't just coming; it's already here. The situation by mid-October is likely to be horribly grim; in November, even worse.

A second lockdown is inevitable.

By early next year, Labour's lead should be in double figures. At which point, it's curtains for Boris: for whom a second lockdown - and horrible numbers of more deaths - will represent disaster.

Then, barring something really remarkable, enter the Tories' only electoral asset.

All new Prime Ministers get a significant polling bounce. Rishi Sunak will be no exception. The Tories might even briefly retake the lead, or at least move to level pegging. Cue editorials despairing of Starmer, much handwringing and gesticulating at him on here.

But Sunak will have an intractable problem. The economy. The effects of this pandemic will be deep rooted and last years. Many years, in fact. And they'll be compounded by the utter calamity of No Deal Brexit.

Sometimes, there's nothing a sitting government and PM can do.

Sometimes, they're simply overwhelmed by events. I think most Tories already know this will be their fate next year and the year after.

Starmer's focus to this point has been to contrast his competence with Johnson's complete incompetence.

Of course his strategy will shift once he's up against someone widely regarded by the public as highly competent and even, popular.

In that, it'll be like a Labour version of how Cameron's approach totally changed once Brown replaced Blair.

A version which will include:

- Much stronger criticism of the government

- Demands for a public inquiry into how Covid's been handled

- And yes, policy. Plenty of it.

Those gogglebox voxpops made me smile. You know why? Because they're evidence that Phase 1 - get Labour a hearing - has worked. Now, people are starting to listen, and naturally to ask: "What are you FOR?"

And against Sunak, Starmer will set that out perfectly clearly.

Meanwhile, the economy - with Britain facing the deepest recession of any developed country - will inevitably take its toll on the Tories' electoral position. As will the consequences of No Deal Brexit: which will be on the Tories and only them.

The idea that voters, whose standard of living slumps, who lose their jobs and/or their homes, and whose children's prospects lie in tatters, will just keep voting Tory en masse and blaming Labour for opposing "their will" is one of the most ridiculous things I've ever heard.

Not just that, but as plenty point out, most of Corbyn's policies were actually popular. The point is: it's about the whole package.

- Are you competent?
- Are you trustworthy?
- Do you understand ordinary people?
- Can you lead?
- Will we be safe?
- Will your ideas help us?

That last question is only reached, and responded to in a positive way, once all the other questions have been answered affirmatively first. That's what this strategy is all about. It's understanding how far Labour have fallen - and that it has to do the basics first.

The opening to start doing much more than the basics is going to get bigger and bigger over the next couple of years, and beyond. Once the public see that yes, Labour CAN be trusted; and yes, Labour IS being led effectively, we'll reach critical mass.

At no point in the last decade have the Tories actually been genuinely popular. They've just kept winning by default, with much of the public disenchanted with all of it really.

The opening's always been there for someone who can bring the left and centre together.

And over the next couple of years, it'll even open up among those on the centre-right who'll see, because it'll be blindingly obvious, what a disaster the Tories will have made of Brexit. In other words: among the business community too.

So yes, I'm optimistic. My one large caveat would involve: if Trump rigs the election and the US ceases to be a democracy, what will become of Britain? That's a very scary thought.

But the polls? Bit by bit, they're vindicating Starmer... and Johnson will be in a cold sweat.