On Friday (Sept 18), #Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer told us that Case counts in Canada indicate “accelerated epidemic growth”. Is this true or is it ye olde #Coronaphobia? Let’s take a deep #data dive
#COVID19 #Coronavirus #pandemic #science #fear https://twitter.com/CPHO_Canada/status/1307077178492936192">https://twitter.com/CPHO_Cana...
#COVID19 #Coronavirus #pandemic #science #fear https://twitter.com/CPHO_Canada/status/1307077178492936192">https://twitter.com/CPHO_Cana...
Let’s the look at the current data as of Thursday this week posted on Public Health #Ontario’s website
#COVID19 #Coronavirus #pandemic #science #fear #Canada #data #covidontario
#COVID19 #Coronavirus #pandemic #science #fear #Canada #data #covidontario
#Testing continues to rise, and an infinitesimally small proportion of all those tests completed are #positive. How infinitesimal? 1.2%
#COVID19 #Coronavirus #pandemic #science #fear #Canada #data #covidontario
#COVID19 #Coronavirus #pandemic #science #fear #Canada #data #covidontario
Number of tests performed today= 35,436
Percent of positives= 1.2%
1,235 MORE #tests performed than yesterday
#COVID19 #Coronavirus #pandemic #science #fear #Canada #covidontario #data
Percent of positives= 1.2%
1,235 MORE #tests performed than yesterday
#COVID19 #Coronavirus #pandemic #science #fear #Canada #covidontario #data
And what effect is this surge in testing and 1.2% positivity having on #deaths? Almost none.
“Increased epidemic growth”
#COVID19 #Coronavirus #pandemic #science #fear #Canada #covidontario #data
“Increased epidemic growth”
#COVID19 #Coronavirus #pandemic #science #fear #Canada #covidontario #data
Also pretty much no effect in #ICU COVID-19 capacity
“Increased epidemic growth”
H/t to @Milhouse_Van_Ho for this analysis
#COVID19 #Coronavirus #pandemic #science #fear #Canada #covidontario #data
“Increased epidemic growth”
H/t to @Milhouse_Van_Ho for this analysis
#COVID19 #Coronavirus #pandemic #science #fear #Canada #covidontario #data
So what is up with all the positive tests then?
Might we be getting false positives?
How many of these “cases” are real COVID-19 infections?
#COVID19 #Coronavirus #pandemic #science #fear #Canada #covidontario #data #falsepositives
Might we be getting false positives?
How many of these “cases” are real COVID-19 infections?
#COVID19 #Coronavirus #pandemic #science #fear #Canada #covidontario #data #falsepositives
To answer the question of false positives, we must re-visit #PCR testing and cycle thresholds (Ct)
#COVID19 #Coronavirus #pandemic #science #fear #Canada #covidontario #data #pcrtest
#COVID19 #Coronavirus #pandemic #science #fear #Canada #covidontario #data #pcrtest
A study published by scientists from Public Health Canada/National Microbiology Laboratory found that when a #PCR was run at 24 cycles or below, the #positive #test meant the person is actually infectious with #virus.
#COVID19 #Coronavirus #pandemic #Canada #covidontario #data
#COVID19 #Coronavirus #pandemic #Canada #covidontario #data
So now the question is: how many cycles are being run in the #PCR #tests currently being used to test people for COVID-19?
You can find the protocol for the PCR tests on Public Health #Ontario’s website
#COVID19 #Coronavirus #pandemic #science #fear #Canada #covidontario #data
You can find the protocol for the PCR tests on Public Health #Ontario’s website
#COVID19 #Coronavirus #pandemic #science #fear #Canada #covidontario #data
And here is the full protocol. Public Health #Ontario is using 45 cycles for their PCR tests. That’s almost TWICE the number of #PCR cycles recommended to find real COVID-19 infections in people. Let that sink in...
#COVID19 #Coronavirus #pandemic #Canada #covidontario #data
#COVID19 #Coronavirus #pandemic #Canada #covidontario #data
What does this mean in layman’s terms? The government/labs are using a PCR protocol that is almost almost GUARANTEED to find a positive result when testing people for COVID-19 infections via PCR testing
#COVID19 #Coronavirus #pandemic #science #fear #Canada #covidontario #data
#COVID19 #Coronavirus #pandemic #science #fear #Canada #covidontario #data
The #UK #government estimates that the false positive rate of these #PCR tests is between 0.8% - 4%.
Let’s the lowest end of the this range (0.8%) and see what that means
#COVID19 #Coronavirus #pandemic #science #fear #Canada #covidontario #data
Let’s the lowest end of the this range (0.8%) and see what that means
#COVID19 #Coronavirus #pandemic #science #fear #Canada #covidontario #data
Last Friday, #Ontario conducted a total of 35,826 #tests, and 401 were positive.
If 0.8% of all tests are #falsepositives, that equals 287.
So out of 401 #positive tests, 287 were false positives if you take the LOWEST estimate of false positives (0.8%)
#COVID19 #Canada
If 0.8% of all tests are #falsepositives, that equals 287.
So out of 401 #positive tests, 287 were false positives if you take the LOWEST estimate of false positives (0.8%)
#COVID19 #Canada
More than half of the +ive tests found 4m PCR testing were false positives, when we used the LOWEST estimate (0.8%).
THIS is y we’re seeing SO many cases, but almost no impact on hospitalizations & deaths. Because majority of these people being tested are actually not infectious
THIS is y we’re seeing SO many cases, but almost no impact on hospitalizations & deaths. Because majority of these people being tested are actually not infectious