So I’ve done some number crunching with worldometer to try to get a feeling for the incoming CFR of COVID-19 this time around, with the current changes in testing.
I made a couple of assumptions i.e. on average it takes a person ~15 days from diagnosis to death

If you take the 7 day moving average for infections on September 10th, and relate that to the 7 day moving average for deaths on September 25th, you will get a glimpse of the CFR. And it will be close to the IFR, given the new testing capabilities in Spain, France, Italy and UK.

Italy - 1.29

Spain - 1.08

UK - 1.18

France - 0.76

If it’s not apparent what is gonna happen this winter without serious lockdown measures.... Looks a lot like the 0.8-1% IFR that we have been saying all along.
To make it worse, I think the average time from infection to death is maybe even greater that 2 weeks.