The Spurs game was bad. We know this.

But was the high line to blame?

Why does Ralph insist on it?

And should we stick with it today vs Burnley?

With thanks to @Manger_Charlie -

A little-known stat called ‘Packing’ might help us understand Ralph’s thinking…

What is packing?

It’s a stat created in 2015 to solve a big problem.

Stats only really recorded goals and assists and not much else.

Other stats like pass completion were unfairly geared towards midfielders who provided safe passes rather than ones that progressed play

How to account for those that don’t score or assist much, but who remain crucial to the other play that accounts for the vast majority of a football match?

Each player receives 1 point for every opposition player that their pass or dribble bypasses.”

That is packing.

To put it simply, if a player bypasses 3 opponents with a pass, they and the receiver of the pass will both get 3 points.

Let’s start with our defence

Pass completion

Stephens - 71.7%
Bednarek - 82.8%
KWP - 83.7%
Bertrand - 71.1%

Stephens bad, Bednarek good?

Well, no...

This is what their Packing stats look like...

KWP and Stephens earn more than double Bertrand and Bednarek.

Bednarek was playing high % passes and keeping possession vs Spurs, but they were sideways.

Not much use in a high-energy pressing game.

KWP was playing high percentage passes too, but they were moving us up the pitch.

Very valuable.

E.g. The assist for Ings’ opener

https://twitter.com/TomC_22/status/1307645082531753994/video/1

The downside was Spurs exploited KWP playing up the pitch as Son ran riot.

That’s where we let ourselves down.

Playing a high line is most beneficial if defenders step up and play aggressive passes.

But it also relies on pressing.

That's where Romeu comes in...

Our pressing suffered once Romeu picked up that 5th-minute yellow card.

His booking basically nullified his only useful trait - breaking up opposition attacks.

On a yellow card, he had to walk a tightrope.

Like pressing, the high line is a strategy with its modern roots in Germany.

RB Leipzig, with Upamecamo-Orban pairing are a good example. Dortmund too.

It makes sense Ralph would try and implement it here.

It is also why we looked much better v Palace when Vestergaard came on and starting playing forward with accurate diagonals.

Stephens can do it. We know he can pick a pass, as he did several times last season (see Palace away in the 19/20 campaign).

Stephens assisted Redmond in that game vs Palace, while Armstrong was the other goalscorer.

On the subject, let’s look at the midfield pass completion stats…

JWP - 77.8%
Romeu - 80%
Armstrong - 88.9%
Djenepo - 75%
Smallbone - 91.7%

JWP was predictably busy, while Romeu went off early. Smallbone was neat and tidy. Djenepo on the periphery.

Armstrong?

High percentage completion and decent number of passes. Looks OK.

But his Packing stats underline his true importance...

He massively outperforms everyone else when it comes to bypassing opponents and receiving passes that have bypassed opponents.

Helps explain his record last season

19 starts
5 goals
3 assists

He is absolutely crucial to the way we play.

Probably only Ings is more important.

Meanwhile the graph doesn’t make great reading for Romeu.

He plays deep so doesn’t receive much going forward. But he doesn’t progress play much at all.

And when he can’t press? He’s not much use at all.

So what can we take from this one game?

The high line relies on pressure from the front and aggressive passing from the back.

Stephens
Bednarek

Romeu’s early yellow was a disaster and he was a passenger until his early sub.

And we need to wrap Armstrong in cotton wool.