



This is the final weekend before the first TV debate - an event which has significantly moved the markets in recent US election cycles.
Check back throughout the day for latest analysis, news and polls.

Also listen in for some deep analysis of the key states and I've put up the first three of my recommended bets. https://twitter.com/BetfairExchange/status/1309488650409971713

What precisely are we referring to? #jargonbusters

This graph covers movement during September.


Market here: http://btfr.co/170366176 https://soundcloud.com/user-275456286/politicsonly-bettor-episode-3-the-most-unpredictable-predictable-election-race

A big turnaround on 2016 when Trump beat Clinton by 8%.

Analysts rate it somewhere between 6-9 on Biden's target list. A Biden win here is definitely national landslide territory.

I think 2016 was an extreme, driven by a combination of Trump's appeal in this deindustrialised region and Hillary Clinton's unsuitability.

He and Obama made hay from saving the car industry there, and won in both 2008 and 2012.


It has also voted for Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown three times including by 7% in 2018. Brown is on the left of the party - a long-term ally of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.


In doing so it will highlight the truth about 2016. Trump's win was a statistical miracle, enabled by Democrats picking a terrible candidate who was inappropriate for the decisive region.