Saturday's #Election2020 thread via @paulmotty

This is the final weekend before the first TV debate - an event which has significantly moved the markets in recent US election cycles.

Check back throughout the day for latest analysis, news and polls.

We discuss that first debate and how it might affect the race in Episode 1 of our election podcast series.

Also listen in for some deep analysis of the key states and I've put up the first three of my recommended bets. https://twitter.com/BetfairExchange/status/1309488650409971713

You'll hear plenty of discussion of the 'Electoral College' in our podcast and in these tweet threads.

What precisely are we referring to? #jargonbusters

No change to the outright odds so far today, maintaining a remarkable, unprecedented run of stability.

This graph covers movement during September.

As explained in this article, September 2020 trends are in stark contrast to Septembers during all previous US elections since Betfair's inception. https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/us-elections-on-betfair-how-the-odds-have-swung-in-final-50-days-of-the-last-four-elections-140920-171.html

One of my three tips from the podcast is Biden to win Ohio at 2.9. Its shortened to 2.6 since, which still strikes me as decent value.

Market here: http://btfr.co/170366176  https://soundcloud.com/user-275456286/politicsonly-bettor-episode-3-the-most-unpredictable-predictable-election-race

Here's why. First and foremost, the polls here favour Biden. He's 5% up in the most recent and @fivethirtyeight rate him the slight favourite.

A big turnaround on 2016 when Trump beat Clinton by 8%.

Mid-term trends reinforced the idea that Ohio was trending red, and no longer the perfect bellwether state.

Analysts rate it somewhere between 6-9 on Biden's target list. A Biden win here is definitely national landslide territory.

However my analysis rates Ohio fifth or sixth. Similar chance to North Carolina and preferred over Texas, Iowa and Georgia.

I think 2016 was an extreme, driven by a combination of Trump's appeal in this deindustrialised region and Hillary Clinton's unsuitability.

Whereas Hillary's brand was liberal New York establishment, Biden has a working-class background and his career was built on appealing to blue collar votes in the Rust Belt.

He and Obama made hay from saving the car industry there, and won in both 2008 and 2012.

Ohio can't be defined as a 'right-wing' state simply because it voted for Trump.

It has also voted for Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown three times including by 7% in 2018. Brown is on the left of the party - a long-term ally of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

My prediction is that Ohio will be the state to take Biden into landslide territory.

In doing so it will highlight the truth about 2016. Trump's win was a statistical miracle, enabled by Democrats picking a terrible candidate who was inappropriate for the decisive region.