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Thread Prisoner& #39;s Dilemma 1/9
We& #39;re discussing today the & #39;exit strategies& #39; or & #39;stay out of jail& #39; ploys of the various Trumpomobsters (Barr, Pence, Ivanka etc). To set it up, I& #39;ll first introduce a psychological behavior pattern called the & #39;Prisoner& #39;s Dilemma& #39; - very well known
We& #39;re discussing today the & #39;exit strategies& #39; or & #39;stay out of jail& #39; ploys of the various Trumpomobsters (Barr, Pence, Ivanka etc). To set it up, I& #39;ll first introduce a psychological behavior pattern called the & #39;Prisoner& #39;s Dilemma& #39; - very well known
Thread Prisoner& #39;s Dilemma 2/9
Prisoner& #39;s Dilemma is a game theory. It is a very simplified human behavior situation (almost over-simplified) but is VERY well known & accepted. The best known usage is if 2 criminals are caught, interviewed separately, & offered chance to confess
Prisoner& #39;s Dilemma is a game theory. It is a very simplified human behavior situation (almost over-simplified) but is VERY well known & accepted. The best known usage is if 2 criminals are caught, interviewed separately, & offered chance to confess
Thread Prisoner& #39;s Dilemma 3/9
In the dilemma, two criminals are caught. Interviewed separately. Asked to confess, where either individually will walk free, but the partner does full time. If neither talks, both get a short sentence instead. That is called & #39;Prisoner& #39;s Dilemma& #39;
In the dilemma, two criminals are caught. Interviewed separately. Asked to confess, where either individually will walk free, but the partner does full time. If neither talks, both get a short sentence instead. That is called & #39;Prisoner& #39;s Dilemma& #39;
Thread Prisoner& #39;s Dilemma 4/9
This THEORY applies in hundreds of applications OUTSIDE of criminal interviews, for example often in various management situations in negotiations, business etc. The standard theory is over-simplified because it assumes no later repercussions etc
This THEORY applies in hundreds of applications OUTSIDE of criminal interviews, for example often in various management situations in negotiations, business etc. The standard theory is over-simplified because it assumes no later repercussions etc
Thread Prisoner& #39;s Dilemma 5/9
If you didn& #39;t know this theory, you get a great overview to it of course at Wikipedia:
#39;s_dilemma">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner& #39;s_dilemma
Now.">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pris... The key point for US considering the Trumpomobsters, is the OPTIMAL PLAY in Prisoner& #39;s Dilemma
If you didn& #39;t know this theory, you get a great overview to it of course at Wikipedia:
#39;s_dilemma">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner& #39;s_dilemma
Now.">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pris... The key point for US considering the Trumpomobsters, is the OPTIMAL PLAY in Prisoner& #39;s Dilemma
Thread Prisoner& #39;s Dilemma 6/9
In the theory, if both criminals stay loyal to each other, they end up getting a shorter COMBINED sentence. It is the best play - but BOTH DO TIME.
The INDIVIDUALLY best strategy is to RAT OUT THE PARTNER. This is what makes it a & #39;dilemma& #39;
In the theory, if both criminals stay loyal to each other, they end up getting a shorter COMBINED sentence. It is the best play - but BOTH DO TIME.
The INDIVIDUALLY best strategy is to RAT OUT THE PARTNER. This is what makes it a & #39;dilemma& #39;
Thread Prisoner& #39;s Dilemma 7/9
For us to consider Trumpomobsters - they ALL KNOW Trump has run a crime syndicate from White House - and they ALL ARE accomplices (=guilty). If ANYONE sings, they ALL DO TIME.
This is a nightmare Prisoner& #39;s Dilemma. Not a question of if, but WHEN
For us to consider Trumpomobsters - they ALL KNOW Trump has run a crime syndicate from White House - and they ALL ARE accomplices (=guilty). If ANYONE sings, they ALL DO TIME.
This is a nightmare Prisoner& #39;s Dilemma. Not a question of if, but WHEN
Thread Prisoner& #39;s Dilemma 8/9
If it was ONLY 2 criminals, say Trump and Giuliani. Or only Ivanka & Jr. It is very likely - knowing the end is coming - to AGREE not to confess, take the prison time, and not rat each other out on all the crimes. BUT because it is dozens involved
If it was ONLY 2 criminals, say Trump and Giuliani. Or only Ivanka & Jr. It is very likely - knowing the end is coming - to AGREE not to confess, take the prison time, and not rat each other out on all the crimes. BUT because it is dozens involved
Thread Prisoner& #39;s Dilemma 9/9
Because there are so MANY criminals in White House, and ALWAYS Prisoner& #39;s Dilemma means your PERSONALLY best option is to rat out the other/s - it is CERTAIN there will be rats. Now you see my premise for today& #39;s & #39;stinking& #39; about the Trumpomobsters
Because there are so MANY criminals in White House, and ALWAYS Prisoner& #39;s Dilemma means your PERSONALLY best option is to rat out the other/s - it is CERTAIN there will be rats. Now you see my premise for today& #39;s & #39;stinking& #39; about the Trumpomobsters
Thank you for reading the thread on Prisoner& #39;s Dilemma and how it relates to the Trumpomobster gang.
This sets up the second thread: What IS the Trumpomobster gang? It is not politicians AND it is not regular mobsters. Pls read what they are in: https://twitter.com/tomiahonen/status/1309795970566303745">https://twitter.com/tomiahone...
This sets up the second thread: What IS the Trumpomobster gang? It is not politicians AND it is not regular mobsters. Pls read what they are in: https://twitter.com/tomiahonen/status/1309795970566303745">https://twitter.com/tomiahone...
