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So $XERS will publish Q3 earnings around 11/10. What can we expect in November? Consensus is 4.56 mln revenue. Will they beat it? What will be the influence on the share price?
$XERS did beat Q2 estimates by 0.4 mln. Current Gvoke sales data from IQVIA show 12.267 TRX sold till last week. There is only this week left this month so we get another full week of data plus 3 days in Q3 earnings. I estimate ~14k sold TRX. Which would net around 4.25 mln USD.
Additionally I guestimate another 15% sales that IQVIA does not caputre (they don´t capture the whole market; see e.g. last earnings transcript). What I like is that $XERS doesn´t complain about it and the CEO only gave some colour after he was asked.
So 0.63 mln additional revenue. And I would add another 0.2 mln from an VA contract https://beta.sam.gov/opp/acb59c12ce004ebf832c456d8c10d283/view#history This would bring the revenue to 5.08 mln. I don´t think any meaningful revenue will come from other sources. But you never know 
So my estimate is that $XERS will beat earnings by 0.52 mln. In relative terms 12%, but this will have no meaningful impact on the valuation of the company as they will still be making losses und will continue for some quarters. It will however destill confidence in investors.
And it will pave a way to the 17.5 mln revenue target one analyst gave $XERS for whole year 2020. Xeris can´t compete on marketing budget or sales force with comp, they need demand from customer side. For this you need people to be a) aware of the product and b)
educate the customer about the added value. Xeris is trying to use social media to do this at least for private clients.
Coming back to what does that mean for the share price. Not much on it´s own... But FDA results, market capture of Gvoke until the release and ...
Coming back to what does that mean for the share price. Not much on it´s own... But FDA results, market capture of Gvoke until the release and ...
... any info on collabs will be much more important imho. The share price is not even reflecting Gvoke´s potential. It´s all about their technology, but no one (at least I don´t
) knows really what price tag to put on that.
) knows really what price tag to put on that.
