UFC 253 Main and Co-Main Picks:

Izzy/Costa is not a pick em fight.

It is a fight that, stylistically, heavily favors the better striker. This doesn’t mean that Costa cannot win.

Only that the skillset he has shown doesn’t add up to reliably beating a striker as nuanced as Izzy

That’s the beauty of predictions. I am confidently telling you guys that, based on the film I’ve watched over the past few months, Izzy will win. And he will win without a lot of trouble.

One punch from a powerful guy with high volume can completely shatter my prediction.

So when I make these kinds of predictions, I’m not telling you that you’re wrong for picking Costa. I’m telling you that I personally don’t see a reliable way for Costa to win outside of flash KO. Which is something every fighter has a chance of doing. Kelvin almost did it.

There’s also the possibility that Costa uses an ultra aggressive style for his 3 round fights, and he will change up his approach in his first ever 5 round fight. We’ve seen it before, and given Costa’s gas tank issues due to his volume game, he could come out more patient.

But all in all, until I’m shown otherwise, what we have is a good MMA striker vs a truly world class MMA striker. Film backs this up as Izzy is significantly more nuanced with his defense and ringcraft. Izzy uses more offensive weapons, etc. Izzy will be afforded an..

..8in reach advantage and that will only contribute to being a proficient outside counter striker. Costa has to be a special pressure fighter for him to keep up, and I don’t think he’s at that level yet. But who knows? Maybe he was in the Hyperbolic Time Chamber this past year.

Sometimes I wonder if emotion gets in the way of a lot of people when trying to accurately predict an Izzy fight. Analysts *mostly* don’t want him to win. They’ve rooted against him since the Rob fight. And that fight was especially traumatic to one of MMA’s finest individuals.

So due to this inherent bias of not wanting Izzy to win, people start to elevate potential contenders beyond what they’re actually capable of. It’s not malicious hate, but it’s more “Well this guy COULD have success” vs “I can totally tell this guy is on Izzy’s level”

I knew Whittaker would oblige Izzy in open space therefore I knew Whittaker would likely lose. Simple as. This hurt my soul as I wanted Whittaker to be champ until he retired, but I couldn’t look past the film that showed Izzy is by far the best striker Whittaker had ever fought.

The same principle applies here except with less emotional investment in Izzy’s opponent. Costa is an educated, durable, and effective pressure fighter for MMA. But Izzy is not a typical striking opponent for MMA. And I think it will apparent very quickly into the fight.

Part of me hopes I’m wrong. I hope Izzy vs Costa is one of the greatest fights ever. A back and forth war where Costa gives Izzy serious issues and Izzy rallies back for a competitive decision. Costa is the kind of fighter that could produce an all time great fight every time.

But I think he’s outmatched here. Physically and technically.

I’ve got Izzy via TKO within 2 rounds.

Rd1 if Costa is as aggressive as usual. Rd2 if Costa tones it down a bit in his first ever 5 rounder.

A late Izzy finish is more realistic than my prediction honestly.

Reyes/Jan is a closer fight in my opinion as Reyes will have a legitimate knockout threat to worry about. Not that Jan is Rumble or anything, but he’s an alright counter striker with stopping power. However, Reyes just seems to be better technically and athletically.

Despite DJFs telling you that Reyes practically dies due to fatigue past round 2, Reyes usually does his best work in round 3 when he’s found his rhythm. A committed body attack, changing levels off of that, and constant lateral movement/direction shifts are skills that..

..I honestly wouldn’t expect out of a LHW. But Reyes shows them and it’s how he was able to beat Jones so clearly. I think Reyes will be able to land pretty consistently on Jan, and will eventually catch him for a TKO win. Reyes TKO round 4. And Still.

Enjoy the fights!