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Weekly round up of useful / reliable English covid statistics:
1. Cases
2. Care home outbreaks
3. Hospital deaths / admissions
4. Covid triage
5. Prevalence
6. Contact tracing
7. The Vallance-tracker
8. Mortality
9. Miscellaneous
#ahcveng
1. Cases
2. Care home outbreaks
3. Hospital deaths / admissions
4. Covid triage
5. Prevalence
6. Contact tracing
7. The Vallance-tracker
8. Mortality
9. Miscellaneous
#ahcveng
1. Cases
1a. Pillars 1&2 - last couple of weeks & last month (current wave) & full curve. Bear in mind the left-hand side was heavily rationed for testing, the right-hand side far less so: the 'two waves' are not comparable.
Source: Gov dashboard https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England
1a. Pillars 1&2 - last couple of weeks & last month (current wave) & full curve. Bear in mind the left-hand side was heavily rationed for testing, the right-hand side far less so: the 'two waves' are not comparable.
Source: Gov dashboard https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England
1. Cases
1b. English pillar 1 (clinical need / NHS) and pillar 2 (community swab) cases and % positive. The left-hand side was heavily rationed for testing, the right-hand side *far* less so.
Source: PHE covid surveillance report
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/921561/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_39_FINAL.pdf
1b. English pillar 1 (clinical need / NHS) and pillar 2 (community swab) cases and % positive. The left-hand side was heavily rationed for testing, the right-hand side *far* less so.
Source: PHE covid surveillance report
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/921561/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_39_FINAL.pdf
2. Care home outbreaks
*Critical data*. In week 38 there were 134 acute respiratory incidents with at least 1 +ve covid test.
Source: weekly PHE report as above
*Critical data*. In week 38 there were 134 acute respiratory incidents with at least 1 +ve covid test.
Source: weekly PHE report as above
3. Hospital deaths and admissions
Covid deaths from NHS England stats (2nd wave now visible): https://england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Covid admissions (total & recent) & covid patients on ventilators (predictor of deaths): https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England
Covid deaths from NHS England stats (2nd wave now visible): https://england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Covid admissions (total & recent) & covid patients on ventilators (predictor of deaths): https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England
3b. An aside on admissions
Covid admissions are still growing at a linear, rather than exponential, rate. *This could change*.
Covid admissions are still growing at a linear, rather than exponential, rate. *This could change*.
4. Triage
111 covid triage should be an excellent lead indicator of hospital admissions, *particularly* for the aged 70+
Thrown off recently by school / college kids seeking tests, but now falling back. No sharp increase in the vulnerable 70+.
https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/mi-potential-covid-19-symptoms-reported-through-nhs-pathways-and-111-online/latest
111 covid triage should be an excellent lead indicator of hospital admissions, *particularly* for the aged 70+
Thrown off recently by school / college kids seeking tests, but now falling back. No sharp increase in the vulnerable 70+.
https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/mi-potential-covid-19-symptoms-reported-through-nhs-pathways-and-111-online/latest
5. Incidence (ONS)
17 day doubling, faster in the young.
We want *more* contrast between incidence in the old versus young, current policy holds that back: the sooner it passes through the young, the sooner it passes over the elderly / vulnerable.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/englandwalesandnorthernireland25september2020#age-analysis-of-the-number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19
17 day doubling, faster in the young.
We want *more* contrast between incidence in the old versus young, current policy holds that back: the sooner it passes through the young, the sooner it passes over the elderly / vulnerable.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/englandwalesandnorthernireland25september2020#age-analysis-of-the-number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19
6. Contact tracing
Each isolation via contact tracing has cost £300k, and most of these are our own housemates and guests whom we could have told anyway.
https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes/status/1309411028011229184?s=20
Each isolation via contact tracing has cost £300k, and most of these are our own housemates and guests whom we could have told anyway.
https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes/status/1309411028011229184?s=20
7. The Vallance-tracker
At Monday's presser @uksciencechief and @CMO_England presented only one scenario for the progression of UK cases (by report date), to 50,000 per day by mid-Oct; so it seems right to hold them to account on this until any alternative is presented.
At Monday's presser @uksciencechief and @CMO_England presented only one scenario for the progression of UK cases (by report date), to 50,000 per day by mid-Oct; so it seems right to hold them to account on this until any alternative is presented.
8. Mortality
https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes/status/1309430778279981056?s=20
This will be an interesting one to watch for the rest of the year, if covid has taken a lot of people who might otherwise not have survived Nov/Dec flu season.
Note 2014/15 and '19: a light mortality year creates "dry tinder".
https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes/status/1309430778279981056?s=20
This will be an interesting one to watch for the rest of the year, if covid has taken a lot of people who might otherwise not have survived Nov/Dec flu season.
Note 2014/15 and '19: a light mortality year creates "dry tinder".
9. Miscellaneous 1: Spain
Spanish case doubling rate (about 3 weeks?):
https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes/status/1309423618280099840?s=20
Incidence seems to be decreasing through Spain now: 2nd wave decelerating.
https://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Servicios/VigilanciaSaludPublicaRENAVE/EnfermedadesTransmisibles/Documents/INFORMES/Informes%20COVID-19/Informe%20n%C2%BA%2045.%20Situaci%C3%B3n%20de%20COVID-19%20en%20Espa%C3%B1a%20a%2023%20de%20septiembre%20de%202020.pdf
Spanish case doubling rate (about 3 weeks?):
https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes/status/1309423618280099840?s=20
Incidence seems to be decreasing through Spain now: 2nd wave decelerating.
https://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Servicios/VigilanciaSaludPublicaRENAVE/EnfermedadesTransmisibles/Documents/INFORMES/Informes%20COVID-19/Informe%20n%C2%BA%2045.%20Situaci%C3%B3n%20de%20COVID-19%20en%20Espa%C3%B1a%20a%2023%20de%20septiembre%20de%202020.pdf
9. Miscellaneous 2:
*Very* interesting SAGE paper published regarding the practicalities of shielding the vulnerable as a tactic for minimising impact of covid epidemic. Well worth a read: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/protecting-high-risk-individuals-as-an-approach-to-controlling-covid-19-outbreaks-4-august-2020
*Very* interesting SAGE paper published regarding the practicalities of shielding the vulnerable as a tactic for minimising impact of covid epidemic. Well worth a read: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/protecting-high-risk-individuals-as-an-approach-to-controlling-covid-19-outbreaks-4-august-2020
9. Miscellaneous 3:
On the same subject, an interesting snippet from another SAGE paper:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/921163/S0655_Forty-seventh_SAGE_meeting_on_Covid-19.pdf
On the same subject, an interesting snippet from another SAGE paper:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/921163/S0655_Forty-seventh_SAGE_meeting_on_Covid-19.pdf
